107
FXUS64 KOUN 142318
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The area of rain and storms early this morning across parts
of western Kansas and the Panhandles continues to dissipate.
A MCV just north of DDC is moving to the east, but it appears
unlikely this feature will have much impact on the weather in
northwestern Oklahoma.  Additional storms are developing
near the Texas/New Mexico state line and farther to the west.  Lift
associated with a shortwave trough just beginning to enter western
Colorado/New Mexico will aid in further development through the
afternoon.  By mid to late evening, it possible that some of the
convection developing to our west will enter mainly northwest
Oklahoma, but chances are on the low side.  Gusty winds are
possible, but not as strong as yesterday evening.

Unlike today, a breezy southerly wind is expected Saturday in
response to the aforementioned shortwave lifting across the
central Plains Saturday afternoon/night. This will certainly
provide some relief from the afternoon heat and humidity. With
the timing of the shortwave trough, storms may develop earlier in
the afternoon across mainly northwest Oklahoma, but expect better
storm coverage to our north. Afternoon convection should also
develop to our west and this may enter parts of western and
northern Oklahoma during the late afternoon/evening. Strong winds
are possible with some of the storms. Will have to see if a
strong low level jet will keep a few storms organized past mid-
evening or if they dissipate near sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

After the shortwave trough moves northeast of the southern Plains,
the area will generally be between a mid and upper level ridge to
our east, and a trough to the west. This overall pattern will
generally remain in place through at least the middle of next
week. Daily thunderstorms chances will remain on the low side
through this period. However, parts of southeast and western
Oklahoma will likely have better opportunities for some rain.
Generally Monday through Tuesday, weak disturbances may skirt
western Oklahoma where the mid-level flow (west to southwest) will
be slightly stronger. This may result in late afternoon and
evening storms moving into far western Oklahoma from West Texas.
There is also a chance of at least one or two disturbances moving
around the western periphery of the ridge. This may bring showers
and storms to mainly the eastern third of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There is the potential of some scattered showers in northwest
Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and have a PROB30 group at KWWR for
these. Showers and thunderstorms this evening are expected to
remain west of the TAF sites. Otherwise generally mid and high
level clouds and no significant aviation concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  92  74  93 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         71  95  72  94 /   0  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  95  70  96 /  20  30  30   0
Ponca City OK     71  95  73  95 /   0   0  20   0
Durant OK         69  94  73  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26