Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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623 FXUS64 KOUN 021133 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Much less convective activity this morning than what was anticipated. Most of what is out there is expected to dissipate this morning with again mainly dry conditions across the area through much of the day. Although with the amount of instability that will be present, if any weak residual low level boundaries survive into the afternoon or there is some differential heating boundary an isolated shower/storm can not be ruled out. By afternoon, attention turns to potential convective development along the dryline, which looks to be near I-27 by late in the day. Models differ with amount of convective development and also what does occur, just how far east this activity will make it. Best chances appear to be across western and southwest Oklahoma, perhaps continuing across the Red river valley through the night Sunday night. Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas. Some of this may try to make a run at northern Oklahoma late Sunday night into early Monday. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions expected today and tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and then eastern Oklahoma by evening. Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area. By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow and by late in the week models bring another surface front south into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Low clouds have developed across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning with mainly VFR to near MVFR ceilings. Thunderstorms are moving across far northwest Oklahoma so have added a mention of TSRA at WWR through about 14Z. A breezy southerly wind will develop at all sites this morning and continue through the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop across West Texas this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 87 70 88 70 / 20 30 40 30 Hobart OK 88 68 94 69 / 20 30 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 88 71 92 71 / 20 30 10 10 Gage OK 91 66 95 66 / 20 30 10 10 Ponca City OK 87 69 87 69 / 30 40 50 40 Durant OK 88 72 87 71 / 20 40 30 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06