Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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010
FXUS64 KOUN 162017
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
317 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Heavy rainfall associated with the northeastward-moving MCV has
decreased over central Oklahoma. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
development will continue through the afternoon over southwestern
and south-central Oklahoma, but with smaller coverage than
earlier. The extant flood watch for central and southern Oklahoma
will continue. Residual parts of storms that form on the NM dry
line today may make it as far as western Oklahoma with the
scenario of another MCV tomorrow morning just as likely. These
various convective initiators in the very humid air mass leads to
high pops tonight and through mid-day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The wet pattern continues into the extended period as a slow moving
trough inches closer and weakens through midweek. Several rounds of
convection and heavy rainfall are likely, but pinpointing exact
timing and location will be difficult and likely dependant on
previous day`s convection. It appears a round of storms is likely to
develop across the TX panhandle Monday afternoon and track across
our area Monday night. The risk of severe storms will likely be
highest across southwestern OK and western north TX where
instability will be highest. Messy storm modes are expected owing to
relatively weak mid livel flow and the fact that by the time storms
enter our area they are likely to have congealed into clusters or
line segments, perhaps with embedded supercell structures. A risk
for large hail and damaging winds will accompany these storms, with
perhaps a tornado or two possible, again mainly across our
southwestern counties. Flooding will continue to be a concern as
well with unseasonably high moisture available. The above scenario
is all contingent on sufficient airmass recovery out west in the
wake of the convection Monday morning, so expect future changes
to the forecast as the evolution of tonight`s convection becomes
more clear.

By Tuesday the mid to upper flow becomes more meridional and PWATs
surge to 1.5 to near 2". This will likely lead to an increased
flood threat across portions of central, southern, and
southeastern OK where convection will either be ongoing or is
expected to develop and training storms are likely. As the main
upper wave approaches late Tuesday, renewed convective
development is also possible over western portions of the area.

By Wednesday it appears the axis of heaviest rainfall may shift just
to the south and east of our area into eastern OK and TX. However,
with the upper trough still lingering just to our west and plenty of
available mositure at least scattered showers and storms are likely
to continue through the day. The trough weakens and lifts northward
Thursday and Friday but our area still remains between a larger
trough over the western US and a ridge centered over the eastern US.
This will keep a moist airmass in place with chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day into next weekend, with the highest
chances across central and heastern portions of the area.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Rain and thunderstorms along with conditions between IFR and MVFR
are likely into this evening over central and northern Oklahoma
with an exiting upper-level feature. Later tonight, rain and
thunderstorms may move into western Oklahoma with ceilings
lowering to IFR throughout central Oklahoma with MVFR ceilings to
the west.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

An Upper Air flight is currently not planned today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  77  63  73 /  70  50  80  80
Hobart OK         61  80  61  76 /  70  30  80  70
Wichita Falls TX  64  82  65  76 /  60  50  80  80
Gage OK           58  79  57  76 /  70  30  80  60
Ponca City OK     61  77  61  76 /  70  40  80  80
Durant OK         64  78  65  74 /  60  80  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ019-020-022>032-
     034>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09



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