Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160824
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers/storms remain possible across southeast Oklahoma
today as the remnants of Barry become elongated into a shortwave
trough that stretches from near the Arklatex to the lower/mid
Mississippi River valley. Sufficient instability will exist by
this afternoon for a few strong storms to be possible, if storms
develop.

Will also need to watch an area of showers and thunderstorms
across southwest KS. Although models want to dissipate this
activity before it reaches northwest Oklahoma. It does appear to
have some upper support, which may be a bit farther east than
models dipict at this time. Will look at introducing some low pops
across far northwest Oklahoma for some of the morning hours.

After today, we will be under influence of upper ridge that will
build east across the southern Plains through the week. This will
result in very warm/hot and muggy conditions across the area. A
Heat Advisory is already in place across parts of north central,
central into southeast parts of Oklahoma for today. Although
current thinking is that conditions will improve slightly next few
days, portions of northern Oklahoma may approach or exceed
advisory criteria through the end of the week.

Further down the road, the GFS continues to be the most
aggressive with amplifying shortwave trough that move east across
the northern Plains next weekend. This would allow a surface front
to approach the area, bringing some slightly cooler temps and
rain chances to parts of the area late Sunday and Monday. The
ECMWF brings more of a backdoor front from the northeast Monday
into Tuesday. Latest run does have some precip along this
boundary, most of which remains to our north and east at this
time. For now, extended part of the forecast will remain dry, but
does show a slight cooling trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  75 100  76 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     95  77 100  79 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         96  77  96  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/30


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