492
FXUS64 KOUN 102345
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

-  Chance of light rain today and tonight for southern portions
   of the area

-  Widespread rainfall is likely end of the week into this weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

As a cold front continues to push southward, temperatures behind the
front are largely in the 50s. Parts of northern Oklahoma will fall
below freezing tonight.

Gusty north winds will continue through the afternoon before
diminishing toward sunset. That said, gusts are not reaching
advisory criteria, so the wind advisory has been canceled early.

An upper low traversing eastward across central Texas will bring
light rain to southern parts of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening. We are starting to see some radar echoes along the Red
River, though dry lower levels may keep this as virga initially,
transitioning to light rain later as the column moistens.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Upper level ridging starts to move in tomorrow, pushing rain chances
out. Mostly sunny skies, cooler temperatures (upper 50s / lower
60s), and considerably lighter northeast winds are expected
Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front.

By Thursday, southerly to southwesterly surface flow returns,
allowing highs to surge into the 70s.

The next cold front is set to arrive in northwest Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon, pushing south to the I-44 corridor overnight. With this
system, low rain chances will return to the area Thursday night.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

By Friday, a potent trough reaches Baja California as a closed mid-
level low pressure system. This system will bring much needed rainfall
to our area this weekend. NBM shows generously high probabilities
of at least 1 inch of rainfall for a good chunk of the FA, with
70-80% chance of this occurring for areas east and south of a
line from Wichita Falls to Fairview to Ponca City.

Southwest flow and mid-level height falls overspreads our region on
Friday afternoon. Mid-level moisture content progressively increases,
and by late Friday, high PWAT values of 1 to 1.25 inches (> 90th percentile
for this time of year) are expected in our area. Widespread moderate
rainfall is likely by Friday night and will continue on Saturday as
this system potentially deepens over our region along with strong low-
level WAA. There is a signal for the quasi- stationary front to remain
in our area as this upper-level system approaches. The southwest steering
flow atop this quasi- stationary surface boundary could lead to training
of showers and storms (though only low instability is forecast).

As is often the case in our neck of the woods, it`s sometimes a case
of feast or famine with regards to rainfall (or lack thereof). Given
the high chances of beneficial rainfall (1+ inches), there are signals
that several ingredients could align and lead to too much rainfall in
a short time. So, we will have to monitor for the flash flood potential
as we head into Valentine`s Day weekend. As is often the case with closed
low pressure systems, there is at least some potential that this rainfall
event could be delayed by a day or so.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Gusty northerly winds will begin to taper over the next few hours.
North winds will prevail through the entire TAF period at most
sites with some south winds returning to northwest Oklahoma by
later tomorrow afternoon. Ongoing light rain showers will continue
across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas
with the highest confidence for prevailing mention of light rain
at SPS and lower confidence at LAW and DUA with PROB30 used
through 03z and 06z, respectively. All rain showers will end
around or slightly after midnight from west to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  59  40  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  59  38  75 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  39  63  40  79 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           27  58  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     33  56  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         43  64  45  74 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...23