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000
FXUS64 KOUN 162110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast is the front that is expected to
move into the area tomorrow, and the potential for light
precipitation tomorrow night. This precipitation could be in the
form of freezing drizzle for areas that fall below freezing before
the precipitation ends.

A positively tilted shortwave trough moving southeast across the
northern Rockies will force a cold front south into our area
tomorrow. An anafrontal light precipitation scenario may develop
given the depth of low-level saturated indicated in the model
soundings. This may begin as early as tomorrow evening across the
north. This should be brief before low-level dry cP air mass dries
near-surface layer sufficiently to end precipitation early Sunday
morning. Further south, near and south of the front, weak
instability in the boundary layer below capping could support some
light shallow showers tomorrow night. This is where the best
chance of measurable precipitation will be. Across northwest
Oklahoma, forecast soundings show minimum temperatures in the
saturated layer of the sounding around -8C which could result in
ice nucleation and some flurries or light snow. Amounts with all
of the drizzle, light snow/flurries across the northwest half of
the area will be very light and probably non-measurable for many
locations. Impacts should be limited given warm road surface
temperatures, although in the worst case scenario where slightly
heavier precipitation (resulting in a few hundreths of an inch of
precipitation) occur for a couple hours where temperatures are
below freezing, a few bridges and overpasses could become slick.
This isn`t a likely scenario and if it occurred would probably be
confined to north-central Oklahoma.

The next trough comes Wednesday, but moisture return is limited and
only low precipitation probabilities were assigned to southern
portions of the area. Models diverge some toward late week when
another trough of varying amplitudes in the models comes through.
This would occur with more moisture, and if the more amplified
scenarios play out, greater precipitation chances may need to be
included.

BRB/JT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  53  31  38 /   0   0  20  10
Hobart OK         39  50  29  41 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  41  60  35  44 /   0   0  20  10
Gage OK           37  40  24  39 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     39  47  30  38 /   0   0  20  10
Durant OK         43  65  41  45 /   0   0  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/12/01