551
FXUS64 KOUN 230331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1031 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue into the holiday weekend with a
   chance of severe storms each day

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold
   front Saturday night into Sunday

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The strongest part of our early morning convection continues to
move slowly southward into northern Texas/far southern Oklahoma.
An associated outflow boundary extends from near Binger southward
to Lawton and then southeastward into northern Texas. Ahead of the
outflow, better moisture return is occurring into the DFW area
where upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoint temperatures reside. Farther
west, surface temperatures are warmer with slightly lower dewpoint
air. As strong heating continues, it is likely that additional
severe storms will form across parts of southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. With the ongoing convection in southern
Oklahoma and cloud cover, additional severe convection this
afternoon should stay south of the Red River in Texas (eastern
part of the outflow boundary).

Despite some weakness in the mid level flow, good direction turning
and high instability will support the risk of very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Any storm that can become establish and move
along the outflow boundary will have the potential to produce a
tornado or two.

Most of the convection this afternoon and early evening should be
south of our area by mid evening.  Most areas will remain dry
from the mid evening into the overnight hours, with increasing
chances of elevated storms around sunrise Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A much stronger low-level jet is expected to focus elevated
thunderstorms by early Friday morning (6-8 am).  Currently, it
appears north central and central Oklahoma will be the favored areas
of seeing this development.  Elevated instability is progged to be
around 1500+ J/kg, so strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely.
The mid and upper level flow will generally move storms to the east
and southeast around 30-35 mph.  It`s certainly possible the
majority of the storms will move east of the area by early afternoon
with a lull in rain and storm chances through the late
afternoon/early evening.  A surface low is expected to deepen during
the day across southeast Oklahoma.  With a 10 mb gradient across the
main body of Oklahoma and mixing, breezy southerly winds can be
anticipated.

A few storms may develop across a dryline in the central/eastern
Texas Panhandle which may drift into far western Oklahoma/western
north Texas by early/mid evening.  Modest height rises are expected
across the southern/central Plains Friday night/Saturday morning
with very warm mid-level temperatures (13-15 C) overspreading the
western third of Oklahoma. Several models indicate a complex or
two of storms will develop mainly north of Oklahoma in Kansas near
the nose of a rather strong low level jet. This activity is
expected to move east and southeast during the overnight, with
some storms entering central and eastern parts of the area.

Convective trends Saturday afternoon and night will likely depend
on a possible outflow boundary from morning convection, and a cold
front located across northern and western parts of Oklahoma. A
capping inversion may limit convection and or storm coverage
across parts of western Oklahoma/western north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The stormy pattern will roll on into Sunday, focused once again near
a frontal boundary as a weak upper wave begins to translate
eastward. With continued strong instability and sufficient wind
profiles, some severe weather risk is likely to remain, though
details on coverage/areas/severity are murky and will likely be
highly dependent on evolution of previous day(s) thunderstorms and
the aforementioned front.

The surface front looks likely to accelerate east of the forecast
area by early Monday, with very pleasant/unseasonably cool
high temperatures (low to mid-70s) possible on Monday and
Tuesday. A low (20-30%) chance for precipitation exists on Monday
afternoon across the southern tier of the area, though this
concern will be highly dependent on how fast the front moves/clear
during the day.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

MVFR restrictions are expected tomorrow morning across central,
western, and northern TAF sites. Thunderstorms are possible across
central Oklahoma tomorrow as well. Additional thunderstorms
through the day are uncertain given the vast differences in model
solutions on how to handle additional storms. Subsequent updates
to the TAFs will continue to narrow in on a better window for
storms across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  61  83  67 /  30  20  40  40
Hobart OK         89  60  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  90  62  89  71 /  50  40  20  20
Gage OK           80  57  86  62 /   0  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     77  57  76  61 /  10  20  50  70
Durant OK         82  65  86  71 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13