Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 242343
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Have made the 00Z TAFs somewhat more optimistic than the previous
forecast. This, however, was done with relatively low confidence
in either outcome. The low ceilings over the eastern 2/3 of
Oklahoma and Texas have been eroding slowly this afternoon, and as
of 2330Z, all our TAF sites were VFR. Model guidance and current
conditions suggest that it will be difficult for clouds to build
back to the west overnight, so we went with that idea, leaving out
ceilings until after a cold front arrives (at some sites)
tomorrow afternoon. (The low ceilings will likely remain for a
while this evening/overnight east of our TAF sites, particularly
east of KADH-KADM.)

There is a risk of fog around sunrise over much of Oklahoma and
north Texas (except the northwest 1/3 or so of Oklahoma, where
stronger winds should preclude any chance of fog). Indications are
that any fog that develops should be relatively short-lived and
shallow.

The cold front will bring an abrupt wind shift, and probably a
scattered-to-broken layer of clouds with bases at about 1,500 to
2,000 ft agl trailing behind it by a couple of hours or so.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Stratus is slowly eroding from west to east, but expect to see
some redevelopment and potentially patchy fog again tonight,
especially in the south. Otherwise no real significant chance to
the forecast. The cold front will move through Tuesday/Tuesday
evening with rain developing Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening,
mainly behind the front, and persisting into Wednesday night in
the south. The cooler airmass behind the front and the widespread
cloudiness will likely make Wednesday feel chilly. Have not gone
quite as low with Wednesday`s high temperatures as the NAM would
suggest, but have undercut MAV/ECS MOS numbers. This system moves
out Wednmesday night/Thursday with temperatures warming again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  87  58  64 /   0  20  40  20
Hobart OK         63  85  58  66 /   0  10  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  64  91  60  64 /   0  10  60  60
Gage OK           61  75  52  67 /   0  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     66  85  54  69 /   0  20  20   0
Durant OK         67  87  63  69 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/23/23


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