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000
FXUS64 KOUN 282043
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

The cold front will continue to sink south and eastward further out
of our area this afternoon and evening, taking any lingering showers
and storms across far southeast OK with it. Skies will clear
overnight but this clearing will be brief as another system moves in
from the west on Monday. Models continue to trend weaker with the
cutoff low as it moves over our area, with most models now barely
producing enough lift for precipitation. Still expect the chance for
at least scattered light rain showers, mainly along and south of I-
40, but amounts will be very light and most places will likely
stay dry. Temperatures will stay a bit cooler across southwestern
parts of the area where clouds and showers will be more extensive,
but without widespread steady precipitation there likely won`t be
a huge gradient across the area (near 50 southwest, mid 50s
elsewhere).

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

By Monday night, the thermal profile becomes marginally supportive
for snow across western and northern OK, but it now appears any
light precipitation overnight will be focused in central and
southern parts of the area where profiles only support rain.
Light rain showers will move out of the area by mid Tuesday
morning, with clearing skies by the afternoon.

Tuesday through at least the first half of Thursday will be dry with
a warming trend as ridging builds over our area. Highs Wednesday
and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s
possible across the south. Our next system then approaches
Thursday into Friday. Models have now trended toward a less
anomalous and more compact cutoff low than what they were
advertising yesterday, with a slowing trend noted as well. We
still have solid chance PoPs in the forecast Thursday night into
the day on Friday, but will have to watch for any further
weakening trends in future model runs. Right now the highest QPF
is focused across northwest OK with lighter amounts to the south
and east as the system will be weakening as it crosses the region.
A few thunderstorms still appear possible across western parts of
the area but severe weather is not anticipated.

Dry and mild weather is then expected by next weekend as southerly
winds and sunny skies return.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR will apply through the forecast period. High clouds will
remain present. Expect north winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt through
this afternoon, and then decreasing after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  54  34  56 /   0  10  20  10
Hobart OK         33  54  30  58 /   0  10  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  38  54  34  58 /  10  20  20   0
Gage OK           24  54  27  62 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         39  57  38  54 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...03