Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 241946
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Few if any changes were needed in the long term, and most of the
focus today was on short term concerns. An MCS moved through
overnight and morning convection persisted behind it, and then
began forward propagating southeast. Increasing instability ahead
of it should increase the damaging wind potential into southern
Oklahoma. Locally heavy rainfall amounts and flooding/flash
flooding are possible, but the storms should have enough
forward momentum to preclude a significant flash flood threat.
The greatest concern may be from near Velma, to Sulphur, to Atoka
where heavy rainfall fell yesterday morning.

Uncertainty is above normal tonight given effects from significant
convection ongoing. Overturning may limit instability some but a
strong low-level jet may replenish low level moisture and
instability this evening/overnight to support maintenance of High
Plains MCS that is expected to evolve and most east-southeast. At
least some severe weather potential is possible, with the greatest
chance of significant severe and hail to our west, evolving into
mostly a wind/heavy rain threat tonight. If convective intensity
maintains into central Oklahoma, moisture transport vectors and
strong theta-e advection along with decreasing Corfidi vectors may
lead to localized flooding becoming the main threat later tonight.

We increased rain chances Monday within band of particularly high
PWAT values, along synoptic boundary, although best forcing for
ascent will be north of us with departing trough. Any convection
that occurs could produce heavy rainfall amounts and a localized
flooding/flash flooding threat especially where the ground is
saturated.

A drier/warmer pattern is expected for the rest of the week.
Little/no changes were made as the focus has been mostly on short
term hazards.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  84  72  95 /  50  50  50  10
Hobart OK         71  88  72  99 /  50  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  98  76  99 /  30  10  40   0
Gage OK           65  85  69  98 /  60  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     68  83  72  96 /  70  50  50  10
Durant OK         72  93  75  95 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ012-013-
     017>020-024-025.

TX...None.
&&

$$

03/12



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