616
FXUS64 KOUN 132323
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Rain chances continue across southeast tonight and Monday.

 - Warming trend this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Closed low embedded within larger scale trough will continue to move
slowly east/northeast into the Ozarks region this afternoon. This
will keep main area of precip across southeast Oklahoma. However, it
appears that another weaker MCV located just northwest of OKC a my
aid in isolated to widely scattered activity further west this
afternoon across central sections of Oklahoma.

Farther south, across central/northeast Texas, multiple MCVs and
larger scale upper low will move from central Texas northeast into
southeast Oklahoma overnight. This will likely result in additional
rain/storms across that area late tonight into Monday morning. Still
appears that most of the northwest half of the area will remain
precip free, but it will be muggy along with some patchy fog.
Amounts/chances do not look significant/high enough to warrant
extending the flood watch beyond Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The disturbance/MCV will meander across eastern Oklahoma Monday,
continuing to provide support for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the day Monday. While farther west some breaks
in the clouds and slowly rising heights from western ridge will
allow temperatures to warm back up closer to seasonal norms, but
still below normal for mid-July. Will likely add at least low pops
Monday night as trough axis remain overhead and modest waa develops
aiding at least in lift even if the veered flow tries to bring in
drier air in that layer.

Latest model runs show this trough remaining across eastern Oklahoma
southward into central Texas through the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. With abundant moisture still in place (PWATS of 1.5-2
inches) will likely continue to see precip chances linger across the
southeast part of Oklahoma with some low chances as far west as I-44.

Otherwise, will see warming trend continue with most locations back
in the 90s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

It still appears that no strong upper ridge builds into the
western U.S. or the Plains. Flow aloft generally remains zonal
over the Plains. Medium range models do show a surface front
approaching or moving into northern Oklahoma on Wednesday night
in response to a wave moving across the Northern Plains. This will
give us the best chance of showers/storms in northern Oklahoma
this week. 500 mb heights are forecast to rise late in the week,
so temperatures will likely trend warmer Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

All terminals should remain in the VFR category through most of
the forecast. However, reduced visibilities in patchy fog and/or
low stratus may lower some of our terminals into a MVFR category
between 12-15Z. For the next 4 hours from 00-04Z terminal KDUA
has a TEMPO for TSRA due to current convection in southeast
Oklahoma although ceilings should stay just above the MVFR
category.  Terminal KDUA is expected to lower to MVFR category
between 12-18Z with increasing stratus lowering ceilings and
visibilities in light rain. There is a low probability of 30% for
-TSRA for terminal KDUA from 18-23Z with a return of storms in
 southeast Oklahoma. Surface winds should go light & variable
 tonight becoming easterly to southerly in direction up to 10 kts
 by 18Z across our terminals as a surface low deepens across the
 U.S. Northern Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  69  87  70 /  10   0  10  10
Hobart OK         90  68  92  70 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  71  91  73 /   0  10  20  10
Gage OK           87  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     86  68  88  69 /  10   0  10  10
Durant OK         86  72  86  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-042-043-
     047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04