Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 210024
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
724 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
00Z Aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convectively modified surface boundary was south of a PNC-CSM
line at 00Z. Numerous SHRAs and TSTMs ongoing along and north of
the boundary, and will continue impacting PNC and CSM over the
next couple of hours. The boundary may continue slightly southward
into the OKC metro area through the early evening, before slowing
and potentially moving back to the north as the low level jet
increases. This could allow for TSTMs to impact OKC 02Z-06Z.
The environmental conditions are very favorable for all modes of
severe storms near and south of the boundary, with wind gusts in
excess of 50kts and large hail possible. CSM recently reported a
67kt wind gust.

A second wave of severe thunderstorms initiating through the evening
across Northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle will move eastward
overnight. These storms are expected to form into a squall line,
impacting terminals from west to east 06Z-10Z. SHRAs and TSTMs are
forecast to exit east of the terminals roughly between 10Z-14Z.

Runyen/Pashos

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/issued by National Weather Service Norman 244 PM CDT Mon May 20
2019/

Widespread and significant severe weather is beginning across the
forecast area. These storms are working with an environment of
high shear and high instability which will promote the initation
and maintenance of long lived supercells. Extremely large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes are expected with these supercells.
In addition these threats and with precipitable water that is in
the 75th percentile, heavy rainfall and widespread flooding is
also anticipated.

A second wave of supercells and severe thunderstorms are expected to
initiate later this evening over northwest Texas and the Texas
panhandle and move eastward. As these move into Oklahoma and Western
North Texas, the storms are expected to undergo upscale development
and form a squall line. Large hail, damaging winds, and flooding
rainfall are expected with this line of storms. Due to the high
shear and the enhancement from the lower level jet, QLCS tornadoes
are possible with this squall line.

Storms are expected to exit the area Tuesday morning, with a
reprieve until Wednesday. Enhanced lower level moisture advection
along with the movement of a strong upper level cyclone into the
Arizona/Utah will result in a chance of precipitation in central
and northwest Oklahoma throughout the next of the week.

Zwink

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  63  75  59 /  60  80  50   0
Hobart OK         77  60  75  56 /  70  80  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  64  78  61 /  60  80  30   0
Gage OK           65  56  74  51 /  80  80  10   0
Ponca City OK     67  64  74  59 /  90  90  60   0
Durant OK         82  65  77  62 /  60  40  80   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/99



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