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334
FXUS64 KOUN 132148
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
348 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A short wave digging across the Central Plains is still expected to
push a weak cold front into northwest Oklahoma beginning late this
evening and reaching the Red River by sunrise Saturday.  No POPs are
expected along this surface boundary, just a north wind shift and
some mid level cloudiness.  Saturdays cloud cover along with perhaps
subtle cooler air advecting in will keep afternoon temperatures a
little bit cooler than today, yet still seasonably normal (lower
50s) for mid December days.  Meanwhile, another trough will be
moving into the U.S. Pacific Northwest which will be affecting our
forecast area on Sunday, bringing in wetter weather and eventually
colder air.

By early Sunday, the flow aloft will shift from zonal to more
southwesterly signaling the approaching trough.  The colder air will
be moving into our northern forecast area early Sunday morning as
seen by the 1000-850 mb critical thickness.  Both 12Z and Latest NAM
model run (18Z) is hinting at isentropic lift just ahead of the
advancing "colder air" and projecting QPF across all but far
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas.  Went ahead and introduced low
POPs for Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours, with light
freezing drizzle across northwest and far northern Oklahoma, to
light drizzle to light rain across the remainder to the south.  The
main forcing from the upper system will start coming into play late
Sunday as the "colder" air advances further south.  The strongest
forcing still looks to be across northern Oklahoma, although looking
less like snow and more like rain to freezing rain in the remaining
affected areas. Will keep light snow in the grids mainly across the
higher plains in far northwest Oklahoma, freezing rain across
northcentral Oklahoma.  Models still not consistent with the
precipitation across central Oklahoma, with the GFS keeping it along
and north of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line to the European & NAM
bringing it into eastern portions of central Oklahoma.  Will
continue to keep POPs low in central Oklahoma, who may just see a
cold rain out of this and ending early Monday morning before the
below freezing air comes in.

A warming trend will start early early next week as a ridge begins
building in from the west.  Temperatures should be back to
seasonably normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  50  34  50 /   0  10   0  20
Hobart OK         34  53  32  51 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  37  58  39  62 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           29  48  26  42 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     32  46  29  42 /  10   0  10  30
Durant OK         38  57  40  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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