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157
FXUS64 KOUN 230955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
455 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move from the central Rockies to the Central
Plains today. Around this low are forecast to be a couple of
distinct lobes of vorticity pivoting east through Oklahoma today.
The first is supporting the current area of convection that had
developed across western sections of the area. These showers and
storms will move east through the day and may still be affecting
portions of the eastern sections mid-late afternoon. Then the
second lobe rotates in this afternoon with a signal for another
round of thunderstorms developing around on a dryline this
afternoon. CAMs show a reasonable consistent signal of this
redevelopment, especially around 21-22Z from Ponca City/Perry
south-southwest to near or just northwest of the OKC metro
eventually developing also toward south central Oklahoma and
north central Texas. With the configuration of how the HRRR
develops these storms this afternoon, will definitely be watching
the trends in the atmosphere for some severe storm potential. It
is not a slam dunk setup with marginal surface dewpoints currently
and this first round of convection potentially cutting off or
limiting moisture advection from the south. But the models do
develop some decent instability and healthy deep layer shear
(40-55 knots of 6 km shear) so there is at least some potential
for severe storms with this afternoon development including some
potential for supercells.

As the primary low moves from the Central Plains into the Midwest,
a cold front moves into the area. Meanwhile another shortwave
approaches from the west keeping thunderstorm chances in the
forecast Sunday and Sunday night near and ahead of the front in
the southeast. Mid-level ridging develops in the West Monday and
will keep precipitation chances low until mid-week when the ridge
aloft moves east and another trough begins to develop in the West,
but pinpointing timing of specific shortwaves moving toward the
area mid-late week and their associated chances of precipitation
will be difficult this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  50  71  45 /  70  20  10  10
Hobart OK         72  45  71  44 /  20  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  52  76  48 /  50  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  39  70  39 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     65  48  68  44 /  80  30  10   0
Durant OK         65  56  77  49 /  80  40  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$