Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 120322
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1022 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

The residual MCV over north central Oklahoma is expected to be an
initiator in the hot and humid airmass to its southeast for
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The best chance
for showers/storms will be east of the OKC area and south to near
the Red River. Overnight, other storms are expected to have moved
into western KS, but most of these are not expected to move very
far south before dissipating. Low chances for thunderstorms exist
in northern Oklahoma overnight. Borderline heat advisory
conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon in southeastern
Oklahoma, and this will need to be monitored more for the
possibility of an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

There are no major changes from the recent forecasts. The upper
level ridge will continue to build through Arizona/New
Mexico/western Texas, which will suppress any widespread
precipitation through the weekend. With the CWA being on the eastern
periphery of the ridge and upper level northwest flow being
prevalent, glancing blows from high plains convection will be a
possibility throughout the week and into the weekend.

The ridge is still anticipated to shift westward over the weekend.
This will result in more of a north-south flow aloft, cooler
temperatures at the surface, and a better environment for the
chance of widespread precipitation.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

VFR ceilings expected most of the TAF period in most locations.
MVFR ceilings are possible at a few sites early Wednesday with the
best chance in north central OK. Some showers and storms could
affect portions of the area early Wednesday as well but chances
too low for mention in TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  97  75  98 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         73 101  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           72 102  74 104 /  20   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  93  73  94 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         73  99  76 100 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...25


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