Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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338 FXUS64 KOUN 030705 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Complex, low confidence forecast continues today. Still appears that a complex of storms will slide south out of Kansas into northern Oklahoma around sunrise and then translate south/southeast through the morning hours. Some severe will be possible with this activity. This activity will also likely produce an outflow boundary that will act as a focus for additional convective development as we approach midday or early afternoon. Exactly where this boundary will be is a tough question to answer, but could be somewhere from east-central or southeast into central then back northwest into northern Oklahoma. Abundant instability will be in place by this time for any storm that does develop to be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern as precipitable water remain high. Models also continue to show scattered afternoon activity farther west, near the drylin as well. More concentrated late today and evening convection may develop across northern Oklahoma, which then moves south/southeast across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma Monday night. Otherwise, expected precip and cloud cover to keep temps a few degrees cooler today, much like yesterday, than what was expected a day or two ago. However, out west, where more insolation may occur, afternoon temps may climb well into the 90s this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 May catch a break for much of the day on Tuesday with regards to storms. However, a shortwave trough will move through the northern and central Plains during the day and the associated surface front will move south toward the area late in the day and Tuesday night. Storms along this boundary to our north during the day will develop further south, into Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Main impacts will be across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. This activity will move out of southeast Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning. In the wake of this system, mid-level ridging will build into the Plains for mid/late week which should limit overall rain chances and temperatures will rise. However we will be on the fringe of northwest flow and models do depict a surface front working south into the area. Models do differ with regards to potential impacts and timing of these impacts. GFS becomes more aggressive with rain chances Thursday and Friday near this boundary, where the ECMWF has a bit more dominate ridge and washes this boundary out with another dropping south into the area by late in the weekend. ECMWF develops more precip with this second front, keeping the late week period much warmer and drier than the GFS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Thunderstorms may affect KWWR later this evening. A complex of thunderstorms may affect northern and central Oklahoma after sunrise Monday. MVFR conditions are expected tonight at most TAF sites with mostly VFR conditions in the afternoon outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 86 69 91 70 / 50 40 10 50 Hobart OK 93 68 97 68 / 20 20 0 30 Wichita Falls TX 93 71 97 72 / 20 20 0 20 Gage OK 92 65 94 64 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 84 67 88 66 / 70 30 20 60 Durant OK 86 70 89 73 / 50 30 0 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09