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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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732 FXUS64 KOUN 281932 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A shortwave trough moving through the northern/central Plains will drive a weak front south toward northern Oklahoma this evening. This boundary will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Although much of this activity is expected to remain north of the area, a few storms may make their way into northern Oklahoma overnight. Some strong wind gusts would be the main hazard with these storms. Otherwise, breezy south winds will continue overnight with very warm overnight temperatures. With the winds and high dewpoints temperatures will only fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s tonight. The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly south during the day Saturday, possibly approaching the I-40 corridor by late in the day. This front will again be a focus for afternoon thunderstorm development across portions of central and northern Oklahoma. Sufficient instability will be present for a few strong to severe storms with this activity. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard along with some hail risk. Before the storms develop, another hot and humid day is expected with heat advisory criteria being met across the west with central and southeast Oklahoma and portions of north Texas reaching excessive heat warning criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The storms will linger through the night Saturday night into at least the first part of the day Sunday. With weak wind fields this activity will move rather slowly and with the high precipitable water present isolated heavy rainfall appears possible. This activity will also push the effective boundary toward the Red river Sunday, which may limit the overall heat risk, at least for one day across much of the area. Head advisory may still be needed across the south. Can not rule out isolated afternoon storms near the residual surface boundary across southern Oklahoma, but this front will be gradually washing out as we go late in the day Sunday and into the evening. Upper ridge becomes centered over Oklahoma and east Texas Monday into Tuesday. This will limit precip chances and mark a return to the heat area-wide, headlines will likely be needed. Another front will approach northwest Oklahoma late Tuesday and to the south of the front a low level thermal ridge will result in very hot conditions across much of the area. Most locations expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees Tuesday. Rain chances also return with this front, initially across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday night and then possibly spreading farther east and south as we go into Wednesday. By late in the week a possible pattern change occurs as western ridge builds with larger scale trough in central part of the CONUS. This should bring cooler temperatures and better rain chances to the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered mid/high-level clouds are expected throughout the period. Very low storm chances exist for KWWR late afternoonand into the evening. LLWS will be a concern for most TAF sites late tonight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 100 76 92 / 10 20 40 30 Hobart OK 80 102 78 97 / 10 10 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 80 101 80 98 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 99 70 93 / 20 20 60 30 Ponca City OK 80 99 71 88 / 20 30 60 30 Durant OK 78 99 78 97 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011- 014>017-021>023-033>038-044. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007- 008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>085-087- 088. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ089- 090. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01