Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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225 FXUS64 KOUN 251929 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across the northern half of Oklahoma. A few stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts, as downdraft CAPE will be over 1400 J/kg. Storm intensity will weaken into the evening, and should be out of the area by midnight or shortly after. A weak frontal boundary will move in beginning early tomorrow morning, and will continue through the area during the afternoon. This boundary is expected to stall south and east of I-44, where severe storms along the boundary are possible. Thermodynamic profiles tomorrow afternoon will support large hail and damaging winds with any stronger storm that develops. Head headlines will also continue tomorrow afternoon across the whole area. An excessive heat warning will be in effect starting at 11 am until 9 pm as there is increased confidence in heat indices over 110 F for southern and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A heat advisory is also in effect for for the rest of the area during the same timeframe. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Heat headlines will likely be needed through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There may be some brief relief of the heat during the latter portions of the weekend, but temperatures will quickly bounce back up to upper 90s and low 100s. Daily low chances of thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, mainly across the northern half of the area. Looking ahead to next week, there is no signal for longer duration relief from the heat that we have been getting recently as we will be sitting under a mid- level ridge. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A thin band of mid-level clouds across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma should continue to thin and move southeast this afternoon. Isolated showers may continue to form, but thunderstorms appear unlikely through mid afternoon. CAMs favor widely scattered storms develop near northwest Oklahoma (WWR) late this morning. Storms that form are expected to move southeast and will have the potential to produce damaging winds. It`s possible that a storm or two may also impact CSM. A surface boundary will move into northern Oklahoma early Wednesday. This will produce a wind to at least PNC/WWR. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with the exception of maybe MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 101 76 98 / 20 10 10 10 Hobart OK 77 104 77 102 / 20 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 104 77 103 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 70 100 73 100 / 30 10 20 10 Ponca City OK 74 98 71 93 / 30 0 20 10 Durant OK 78 100 76 98 / 10 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>032. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ033>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...06