Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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986 FXUS64 KOUN 250334 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Mid afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A persistent band of mid-level clouds across northern Oklahoma continues to drift eastward this afternoon. A few light showers may occur, but overall the clouds should gradually decrease, as a weak disturbance over southwest Kansas moves east. A mid and upper level ridge is currently centered from roughly southern Arizona into central/southern Texas. The ridge is expected to build over the southwestern states through Tuesday. As this occurs, the mid to upper flow will become northwesterly. Before this, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. A few of these storms may reach northwestern Oklahoma by late evening/early overnight. Otherwise, some cloud debris could overspread the area. Somewhat higher dewpoint air is expected to advect into Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. Unfortunately, this will only exacerbate the heat with higher heat index values. Heat index values of 105 to 110 are expected during a majority of the afternoon hours. Parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma may exceed 110 but confidence is not high enough to include this area in a Excessive Heat Warning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Tuesday night and Wednesday... By late afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along a prefrontal trough in southwest Kansas/Panhandles area. Although the instability is not expect to be overly high, high-based storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds. Still uncertain how far south and east storms will move/develop through the early to mid evening. A more organized area of thunderstorms is possible along a cold front in Kansas during the evening. There is an outside chance of a thunderstorms complex impacting mainly the eastern half of Oklahoma overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. Not confident enough at this time to adjust PoPs higher and extend into southern Oklahoma. A cold front is expected to move across at least the northern half of Oklahoma Wednesday which should keep temperatures at or just below 100 during the afternoon. Farther south hot temperatures and humidity will result in heat index values from 105 to perhaps 110. With some uncertainty with how far the front may push Wednesday, and residual influences from overnight/early morning convection, a Heat Advisory will not be issued for Wednesday. Late afternoon storms may develop across parts of southern Oklahoma, but coverage will be limited. Other storms may move into northwestern Oklahoma during the evening. Thursday and Friday... The upper ridge to our west is expected to flatten and build into the southern Plains Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During this period, rain and thunderstorms will be confined to mainly northwest Oklahoma during the evening hours. A breezy southerly wind is expected also, especially Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon/evening. Heat headlines may be required for the southern half of Oklahoma and northern Texas each afternoon. Saturday and Sunday... Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday into Sunday as another cold front approaches northern Oklahoma. Models have also trended with a stronger mid-level ridge near Oklahoma. This may limit thunderstorm coverage and or keep a majority of the rain to our north this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 941 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Light south wind will continue overnight with a few high clouds streaming across from high Plains convection. Although there is a very low chance that a storm makes it into northwest Oklahoma late tonight, chances are too low to include in WWR taf at this time. South winds will increase some during the day Tuesday, especially across the west where gusts above 20kts are expected. Have included a mention of tsra at PNC after 00Z tomorrow evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 99 76 99 / 0 10 20 10 Hobart OK 78 101 76 102 / 0 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 100 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 104 71 100 / 20 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 78 101 73 96 / 0 30 30 10 Durant OK 78 98 78 99 / 0 10 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30