Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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858 FXUS64 KOUN 170751 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Oklahoma will exist between week southwesterly flow aloft to the north and an upper ridge to the south. The hot and humid airmass will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average today. it will be quiet windy today with a strong lee trough over eastern Colorado. Sustained speeds and gusts are expected to remain just below advisory criteria today. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Earlier in the week, weak southwesterly flow will remain to the north of Oklahoma with an upper ridge to the south. Hot and humid conditions will continue. Gusty south winds will continue with the strong southeast Colorado surface low and front extending northeastward. This front is expected to approach northwestern Oklahoma early Wednesday with low thunderstorm chances. Also by Wednesday, the synoptic pattern will become more mid-summer like with a very strong upper high over the eastern half of the U.S. and with its ridge extending into Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico. This will keep temperatures above normal and low storm chances around the periphery of the ridge through most of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The models have backed off a little bit with the magnitude of the low-level jet. There will still be some low-level wind shear to deal with overnight, but the magnitude of the shear vector is forecast to be just under the 30-knot threshold to mention LLWS in the TAFs, except for KWWR. Some MVFR ceilings will likely move into KDUA in the morning. Later in the morning, southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 91 74 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 93 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 75 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 96 72 94 69 / 10 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 93 74 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...26