989
FXUS63 KPAH 132333
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of thunderstorms with an approaching front late
  tonight and Friday afternoon.

- Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru
  next week with daily heat indices around 100 degrees. An
  isolated heat of day thunderstorm then cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Showers/storms well to our north (over IA) will dive southward
with a front tonight. It will arrive on our doorstep by/after
midnight, with little instability/shear remaining to feed it.
Still, there may be just enough gas left for an isolated shower
or storm, mainly north of I-64.

The main part of the system/front makes passage over the Mid to
Upper part of the Ohio Valley tmrw, trail-dragging its boundary
across our CWA or maybe more like disintegrating it as the mean
Central U.S. ridge starts to build. It or an outflow from
convection thereof may be just enough for a little heat of day
fuel/forcing tmrw to also carry an isolated pop, with the best
chance shifting from the north part to the south part of the FA.

After sunset, the high pressure ridge starts to really take
over and leads to giving us our first prolonged period of
heat/humidity. Daily temps soar into/thru the 90s, and after a
brief post frontal cooldown in dew points Saturday, they return
to near 70F for the new week. As a result, the new week will see
consistent daily heat index values in the upper 90s, with a few
triple digit readings to boot. And CPC outlooks our area with
Excessive Heat thru the 24th, so it`s possible we don`t see
temps/dew points like we have right now again until maybe even
October?! Also, along with the summer-like heat and humidity
returning, a daily heat-of-day pulse type storm cannot be
completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A thunderstorm complex well north of the region this evening
will weaken significantly by the time it reaches our doorstep
well after midnight. Can`t rule out some scattered activity near
KMVN by 09z or so, but confidence is low. May have additional
isolated convection develop during the afternoon tomorrow,
mainly for southern terminals. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
through the period. Winds will be light and variable tonight,
W/SW tomorrow morning, and then become northerly 7-10 kts
tomorrow afternoon behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...SP