Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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296 FXUS63 KPAH 130344 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. - Hot and humid Sunday. Heat index values around 100 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. - A chance of showers and storms is forecast Monday through next Wednesday. Very warm and humid. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A high pressure ridge across the area will lose its grip and give way to return flow through Thursday. The result is dry weather will continue tonight and Thursday. Thursday night, organized convection is forecast to our north and west in conjunction with some heights falls and an energetic shortwave that will move across the Great Lakes region. The convection should fall apart as it enters our area along Interstate 64 by Friday morning. This may set the stage for isolated afternoon thunderstorms Friday, as either a remnant outflow boundary and/or weak front will be across the area. Models advertise plenty of instability and high dew point air to go along with the weak convergence forecast. Some of the guidance hints at a very weak impulse moving southeast across the region as well. The isolated chance could continue into the evening and shift toward southeast Missouri. Heights will rise over the weekend into early next week as a ridge sets up overhead initially then broadens and intensifies over the southeast U.S. We should see a brief break in the humidity Saturday as lower dew point air works south. Then on Sunday it will be hot and humid with heat index values around or just above 100F due to return flow. Not sold that it will remain completely dry Sunday given the weak return flow on the west side of the ridge, and available instability and moisture seen in the data. For now we will continue to monitor model trends. With the models keeping the upper high center to our east early next week, a series of impulses are forecast to move north on the west side of the ridge and over our area, resulting in a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This should help keep the heat and humidity in check. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions through Thursday. Winds will gradually become SSW 5 to 10 kts Thursday; however, they will diminish toward sunset as has been the case the past few days. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CN AVIATION...KC