391
FXUS63 KPAH 230632
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The appearance of triple digit heat indices will exand daily
  until reaching a peak Tuesday, when Advisory levels at or
  above 105 degrees are expected.

- Best rain/storm chances will accompany the approach and
  passage of cold fronts today and Wednesday. The Wednesday
  fropa will end the daily oppression of heat/humidity as
  slightly cooler and drier air arrives toward the week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Active convection extends into northern MO along the approaching
cold front. The speed tracker puts its 30 mph advance into our
northern CWA around daybreak, with some prefrontal activity
possible up to a few hours before that. The more generously
modeled instability is about 800 Joules of MUCAPE in the lower
1KM, but 700-500MB lapse rates are challenged at only about
5C/KM. Better instability is available as we heat up, with
upwards to about 2500 Joules/KG available to tap along and ahead
of the boundary where dew points pool in the lower 70s as highs
reach into the lower 90s even with some cloud cover across our
southern counties where it makes passage this afternoon. SPC
still carries a Marginal risk along the boundary, and the
Machine Learning model suggests upwards to a 15% probability of
severe wind gusts is possible. However, it is still clearly
showing the best severe risk is displaced to our north and east,
nearer the parent low`s track.

High pressure fast strengthens Monday-Tuesday, resulting in
soaring air temperatures into the mid (Monday) to upper
(Tuesday) 90s. Dew points around 70F will produce some triple
digit heat indices with more widespread triple digits, including
some Advisory level 105s or better, slated for Tuesday.

The next cold front`s approach and passage comes Wednesday.
Frontal associated pops begin Tuesday night and peak with fropa
Wednesday afternoon. There will be equal or better MUCAPE and
bulk shear available, along with the presence of an MCV with
this boundary. It`s too early to detail at this writing, but
we`re anticipating a strong/severe storm risk with this passage
being introduced eventually.

This mid week fropa will break the oppressive heat/humidity for
at least a day as dew points drop thru the 60s and highs
Thursday top out nearer climo norms at 88-91F. However we
quickly heat up again heading into the weekend as high pressure
reaserts itself and we develop a warming southwesterly flow
pattern. Highs return right back into the mid 90s with triple
digit heat indices reappearing as dew points sling their way
back into the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mid level bases nearing KMVN will increase with CIGS becoming
predominant as an active convection cold front makes its
approach. Showers/storms are modeled to make their appearance at
KMVN by daybreak, with the other terminals soon following. Lower
mainly VFR CIGS but with potential restrictions to MVFR where
storms occur can be anticipated along the boundary. Its eventual
passage this afternoon will eventually clear skies and return a
restriction free forecast for the back half of this package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$