458
FXUS63 KPAH 270815
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
315 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry end to the work week expected with increasing
  temperatures into Friday.

- Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and linger into
  the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns
  Wednesday.

- Pattern into next week features a battle between oppressive
  heat and short periods of relief in between. Saturday and
  Wednesday are forecast to be the most uncomfortable days of
  the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today through Friday: A surface ridge will be in place across the
Quad State today before shifting eastward through the day Friday.
Aloft, flow will be more zonal across the area. The combination of
the two will allow for a bit quieter conditions through Friday
evening. As the surface ridge shifts east on Friday, expect
southerly flow to return, pushing moisture northward from the Gulf.
Scattered cloud cover will increase Friday afternoon as the
aformentioned moisture increases. Temperatures will warm from the
mid and upper 80s today to the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday.
Humidity values will be noticeably lower today; however, with the
return of moisture on Friday, heat index values will push up close
to 100 degrees!

Saturday and Sunday: A low pressure center is progged to drift from
the Upper Great Lakes eastward into southern Ontario and Quebec
Saturday night into Sunday morning. As this happens, moisture will
steadily lift northward along and ahead of an approaching cold front
draped southwest from the low. The forcing doesn`t appear
particularly strong along the boundary; however, there is some
convergence with the wind shift. This will lead to increasing cloud
cover and chances for showers and storms along and ahead of the
front. Shear looks to be lacking (around 20kts or less); however,
instability will be abundant, so a few pulse-type severe storms will
be possible as a line forms on the frontal boundary. In fact, there
is a marginal risk of severe for Saturday. The timing looks to be
later in the day into the evening hours for the frontal boundary
arrival, which may keep most of the day dry and sunny. If that is
the case it will feel pretty miserable outside as temperatures may
soar into mid to upper 90s! The increase humidity would push heat
index values into 105 to 110 degree range by mid afternoon. This is
easily within range of a Heat Advisory.

Rest of the forecaster: A surface ridge and upper-level ridging is
expected to build in for next week, which would allow for continued
hot weather for the Quad State area. There will be somewhat of a
break in the heat on Monday as the front shifts out of the area;
however, the heat quickly builds back for Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday with additional heat headlines likely. Another frontal
boundary will approach from the north on Wednesday, which will be
the next chance for scattered showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Clouds cover continues to decrease late this evening. Mostly
clear skies are expected across at least the western two-thirds
of the area which would include CGI/PAH/MVN. These areas have
the best chance of seeing fog development overnight. Otherwise
other than passing mid/high clouds, skies will be mostly clear.
Calm to variable winds tonight will increase from the northeast
between 5-10 knots Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...AD