020
FXUS63 KPAH 292342
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect today across portions of the
  region for heat index values peaking between 105 to 109
  degrees.

- Shower and storm chances will be on the increase today as a
  cold front slowly pushes south. The greatest risk peaks
  between 8PM to 1AM, especially across portions of southeast
  Missouri and far western Kentucky. A few isolated severe
  storms remain possible with damaging winds, small hail,
  torrential downpours, and lightning being the main concern.
  Localized flash flooding issues are also possible.

- Relief from the heat and humidity is in store Sunday into
  Monday before turning unpleasant again in time for the 4th of
  July. An unsettled pattern with daily chances for showers and
  storms also begins the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

About as hot and muggy as advertised today with dewpoints
pushing close to 80 across WKY and SEMO and in the mid to upper
70s across southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana. Heat index
values are working towards 105-109. The cu that is forming
overhead is fairly sparse and rooted about 4500-5500 ft and
limited by a capping inversion just above that layer. Surface
front near Kansas City is starting to show signs of better
convective initiation and we may still develop activity in the
Ozark Mountain region by 3-4 pm as well. The best chance for
thunder this evening still looks to be over southeast Missouri
from about 5-11 pm. Some of that activity will likely translate
eastward into the rest of the quad-state region but the chances
diminish little by little as you go further east. Deep and low
level shear is minimal but relatively strong instability and
water loading may lead to some damaging wind potential with any
thunderstorms that form. Precipitable water values are 2.2" to
2.3" so very heavy rainfall will also be a factor with any storm
through tonight.

Surface "colder than it was" front works through early Sunday
morning and steadily lowers our dewpoints through the day.
Monday still looks pretty pleasant before moisture return starts
to ramp up again on Tuesday. By Wednesday and persisting through
the end of the week a general troughiness sets up to our
northwest. This works with the heat and humidity to bring an
unsettled pattern to the region with persistent rain and
thunderstorm chances. The 12z guidance suite sends a front
through Friday night that starts to clear things out. I think
its fair to suspect a period or two of modest severe weather
threat may emerge between Wednesday and Friday with wind the
leading threat. Heavy rain and flooding may also be a concern.
In general though there is still not any one particular spot
that you would key in on as a particular threat, and any
flooding risk may just end up a function of wherever sees
repeated activity. Outdoor plans for the 4th of July holiday
still look to be challenged by rain and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Isolated to scattered shra/tsra expected mainly from 02z-11z,
with best chances at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Away from tsra, VFR
conditions are expected, with only brief MVFR possible with
shra/tsra. Southwest winds around 5kts will become northwest
between 06z-12z with the passage of a cold front. After 12z,
northwest to north winds will be 5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ084-085-
     088>090-092>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>013-017-
     022.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...RST