Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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322 FXUS63 KPAH 291104 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 604 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly below normal temperatures, dry conditions, and low humidity will be the main story through Friday afternoon. - A somewhat unsettled pattern returns this weekend into early next week with daily rain chances along with a more humid summer-like airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 12Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region shifting to the east early this morning. At the surface, an associated low pressure system located across the northern Ohio Valley is dragging a weak cold front through the region into the Tennessee Valley. With a dry airmass in place and weak forcing, no precipitation is expected today. As the upper wave shifts across the east coast, northwest flow aloft will keep the area dry through Thursday. Global models depict shortwave energy traversing the Missouri Ozarks Friday, which will introduce our next-best rain chances after Friday evening. LREF clusters depict fairly good agreement of this wave slowly meandering through the Ohio Valley into Sunday, keeping daily rain chances through the weekend. The latest NBM 4.2 probabilities of rainfall totals greater than 1 inch through this period are generally in the 10-30% range. Ensemble guidance begins to diverge more greatly Monday and beyond, though there are indications additional disturbances may spin-up within the quasi-zonal flow aloft. With moisture return and instability progged to be on the increase, additional showers and thunderstorms appear possible into early next week. Severe thunderstorm potential remains highly uncertain this far out, though the CSU machine-learning probabilities do indicate at least some chance for severe weather in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This potential will have to be reassessed in future forecast packages. Temperatures are progged to remain slightly below the climatological average through Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, and lows in the 50s to near 60. NBM percentile data show a gradual increase to near to slightly above normal temperatures Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 IR Satellite and surface obs show SCT-BKN mid level bases around 10K FT AGL early this morning. Similar to yesterday, we`ll expect diurnally lifted parcels to produce SCT-BKN bases again today in the 5-7K FT AGL range this afternoon. Otherwise it`ll be a light northerly flow regime underneath continued dry north to northwesterly flow aloft for an entirely Visual Flight Rules forecast package. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$