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000
FXUS63 KPAH 141109
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

Update to aviation for 12z TAFs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH Tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

Fairly high confidence in the short term forecast.

Models have been fairly consistent with bringing a closed low out
of the central plains and through the mid Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys. This will also have surface reflection of a weak low
and attendant boundary extending east today ahead of the system.
This will bring storm chances to the area with the best chances
northwest of the Ohio River. Storms should be scattered at best
and severe is not anticipated today or tonight. Mainly due to weak
instability and weak shear. CAPE`s will run between 500 to 1k j/kg
at the peak heating of the afternoon. Winds will be nearly
unidirectional and weak. However PW`s will be approaching 2 inches
so any storms that do form will be efficient rain producers.
Instability and PW`s will increase as we head into mid week with
heavy rain being the main threat.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

Unsettled weather through the period. However, decent agreement
among all models

Starting Wed a ridge is over Ohio with an upper level low and
associated trough over Iowa down to eastern Texas. Although the
upper level low is forecast to weaken, the trough will slowly move
through the area. A plume of subtropical moisture is forecast to
move in ahead of the trough. PW values are forecast to go over 2
inches over parts of the area from 18z Wed through 18Z Thu, plus a
deep warm convective layer exists. Followed the plume of high PW
to mention locally heavy rainfall. Blended WPC and superblend QPF
during this time period.

There is also a slight increase in bulk shear during the
afternoon Wed. We are outlooked in a Marginal risk and this looks
prudent with the moisture/instability. On Thursday, another
Marginal risk of severe storms is possible as drier air in the mid
levels may allow for a bit of clearing. Plus stronger winds in the
low levels may aid in storm development. Damaging winds will the
the main threat both days.

A brief respite in the storms is possible Thursday night into
Friday before the next wave drops down from the upper midwest
Friday into Saturday. This system will bring a boundary down to
about the KCGI to Madisonville by 00Z Sunday. This will aid in
daily chances of storms until a stronger system moving in late
Monday finally clears things out a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

Large deck of mainly mid/high clouds reaching to about the
Mississippi River at 11Z. This will spread slowly northeast during
the day and tonight. VFR conditions will prevail except in
scattered showers and thunderstorms that will move across the area
in waves and generally dissipate as they move northeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...PS