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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A final, minor impulse will move eastward across the region this
afternoon through this evening. Isolated showers will be possible,
and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The CAMs are not very
intense at all, and the 18Z NAM has come in mostly dry compared to
its 12Z run which indicated more of a thunderstorm threat. Thunder
is a bit of a stretch at this point, but will leave a mention in
the forecast just to be on the safe side.

Weak surface high pressure and weak flow aloft will result in
mostly quiet weather Tuesday through Wednesday. The fly in the
ointment is a weak upper-level disturbance that will push eastward
into the region Tuesday night. As high pressure aloft builds
around it, it will become more of a weakness in a sprawling upper
ridge that spans the southern half of the country.

In association with the upper disturbance, a few showers may
reach southeast Missouri late Tuesday night and isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, mainly across the
south in the heat of the day. In addition, a weak cold front will
approach the area from the north Wednesday, but it will not
likely get here. However, we could see some convection initially
along the boundary propagate into our northern counties on its
outflow. PoPs Tuesday night and Wednesday will be 30% or less and
very localized heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary
concerns.

As for temperatures, after a cooler day today and a coolish night
with lows dropping to the upper 50s in some locations tonight,
temperatures will jump back to normal levels for Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The models appear to be in good agreement with the extended forecast.

We will start and end the extended in a very static pattern. We will
be cut off from the northern flow with weak high pressure at the
surface. There will be a weak low aloft trapped between upper high
pressure off the east coast and the southwest US. With this system
as weak as it is the main chance for rain will likely be diurnally
driven. Even then nothing notable is expected weather wise. As we
progress through the weekend an upper low over the Hudson Bay area
will force the upper high over the east coast to retreat southward.
The trough may have a little influence on the area as a surface cold
front approaches from the north. This front will stall before
reaching the area but it could increase our chance for rain. A
thunderstorm cant be ruled out but nothing strong or severe is
expected. In fact rain chances will be low with spotty coverage on
any given day. Temperatures should be very near normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The rain should be east of KEVV and KOWB to start the period, but
an MVFR or lower ceiling may linger for an hour or so. Otherwise,
isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible this afternoon through early
evening, but the expected coverage is too sparse to mention in the
forecast. It would be most likely at KMVN, KEVV and KOWB. West
southwest winds will increase and gust to near 20kts this
afternoon throughout the region. As skies clear and winds diminish
tonight, fog development cannot be ruled out, especially where
SHRA/TSRA develop this PM.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS