Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261741
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

Updated aviation section for 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

A weak mid-level short wave will slide east from the southern
Plains into the lower MS River Valley today and this evening.
Still not expecting much of an impact with this system, other than
some very light rain or sprinkles from time to time, especially
later this afternoon and into the evening over portions of western
KY. Will be a another cloud shrouded, gloomy day, and max temps
are expected to hold in the 40s.

Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will take place on
Monday/Monday night, bringing an end to any rain chances. Still
not convinced we will get into much sunshine though, as the ridge
looks to be be fairly dirty in nature. This, and north/northwest
winds will likely hold afternoon temps in the 40s again.

The next system to move east out of the southern Plains
Tuesday/Tuesday night looks to be more organized in today`s
computer runs compared to this time yesterday. However, both the
operational GFS and ECMWF take the gist of the energy well south
of our forecast area toward the northern Gulf Coast. The highest
chances of seeing any light precip Tuesday night will be over
southern portions of southeast MO. Temperature
profiles/thicknesses from the EC suggest this could be in the
form of light snow, but GFS is warmer in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Will just go with very light rain or snow for now, but
not expecting much of a real impact at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

Most medium range model solutions showed split-flow mid level
shortwave energy departing the PAH forecast area to the east at the
beginning of the extended forecast period. The question is exactly
how this system will have evolved by the time it is close enough to
produce pcpn for our region. It appears at this time that the
southern low pressure system, which is progged to eventually weaken
into an open wave, will be the primary source of any possible pcpn
for our region Wed morning. For now, the forecast will be for
showers (a little wintry mix possible north) for the eastern half of
the region. The QPF is minuscule at best.

Wavy mid level flow will continue later in the week, with model
variability increasing and overall forecaster confidence decreasing,
especially by Fri (Day 6). The Wed night through Thu night period
appeared dry at this time in the model consensus, with at least
brief ridging occurring at the surface and aloft. The southern half
of the region is expected to have the least cloud cover.

By Fri (Day 6), another split-flow set up will probably be in the
area, but the amount of phasing of shortwave energy is uncertain at
this time. Some model solutions have a solid rain shield over us and
others have us high and dry. As a result, for the Fri through Sat
time frame, the going forecast will have low rain PoPs for eastern
parts of the region.

Though this may change, a gradual warming trend to above average
temps is currently forecast in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

Ceilings more than a few miles from the Tennessee border have
remained closer to 4-6k kft this morning so will hold only VFR
ceilings for the region today. Dropping ceilings to MVFR
overnight, with near-IFR ceilings early Monday morning possible.
Brief patchy fog should be limited to KCGI and possibly KPAH
during gaps in cloud cover. Light showers will be in the area for
Western Kentucky this evening. Winds will remain light through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...ATL



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