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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221349
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Updated forecast for expiration of Frost Advisory. Remainder of
forecast is unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Definitely getting frosty out there this morning, and a few
locations in southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile are flirting
with a light freeze. The Frost Advisory will remain intact
through expiration. Hopefully, this will be the last frost or
freeze product of the season.

Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term portion of
the forecast. A compact upper-level storm system will dive into
the base of a larger-scale trough over the Great Lakes tonight.
This will drag another cold front through our area. The larger-
scale trough will then push eastward allowing heights to rise over
top of surface high pressure in our region Wednesday.

Southwest winds will pick up a bit later today and temperatures
will rebound well into the 60s this afternoon. Went on the warm
side of guidance due to the dry air in place and the cool bias of
guidance over the last several days. Winds will be very light
tonight as the cold front attempts to move through the area, but
the north winds will kick in quickly Tuesday. Dewpoints will hang
around 40 throughout the area tonight, so we should not have any
frost concerns.

The cold advection will be slow to arrive on Tuesday when the
consensus of guidance has high temperatures spanning the 60s from
north to south. Modest northeast winds will persist from Tuesday
through Wednesday night. Temperatures will drop into the middle
and upper 30s Tuesday night, which could support some frost
development at least in sheltered areas. We will be cooler
Wednesday with highs only in the 50s. It will be a bit milder
Wednesday night, but some patchy frost cannot be ruled out over
the Evansville Tri State.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

At the start of the period, we will see an upper level ridge
continuing to depart the area from west to east. Moisture will be on
the increase as an upper trough in the central Plains heads
eastward, bringing an increase in clouds but we should stay mainly
dry for Thursday. While models have had a difficult time converging
on a viable solution for weather conditions for the end of the week,
slight chances for rain enter the picture on Thursday night and
chances will continue into the day on Friday, as the actual upper
trough moves into the area. Precipitation amounts look light right
now. Using a model consensus along ensemble data, placement of
highest chance PoPs will be in the southern counties.

While Friday night should be mainly dry as this initial trough
shifts east, the Canadian lags behind a bit and indicates lingering
rain in our southeastern sections, but right now that solution looks
like a bit of an outlier.

Another stronger looking system will dive southeast toward the area
for the weekend. There continues to be model differences in the
exact timing but it is looking more and more that by Saturday
morning, we will be dealing with some rain moving into the area. The
12Z/00Z ECMWF looks to be a bit of an outlier with its quicker
solution, getting the main upper trough east of here Saturday night.
The GFS, Canadian and GFS ensemble mean indicate an unsettled
weekend for parts of the area with their slower solutions. Will
maintain PoPs through the weekend for now, especially for the
eastern half, leaving Sunday night mainly dry as the system lifts
out of the area.

As far as temperatures, Thursday should be our coolest day with
highs in the lower 50s. We should gradually warm up a degree or two
with each passing day as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

The TAFs are VFR. Southwest winds will increase this morning and a
few gusts into the teens will be possible this afternoon,
especially at KEVV and KOWB. A weak cold frontal wind shift will
work its way through the area overnight, but the winds on either
side of it will be so weak that it may not show up in the
observations. Decided to just mention light and variable winds at
all sites through the night. There could be scattered 2-4kft
clouds near the front.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS