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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191132
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Upper level ridge positioned over the SE US should provide
another fairly tranquil day across the forecast area. Afternoon
highs will to top out in the lower 90s. With dewpoints in the
lower 70s, should see afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s
to near 100 in many locations. Diurnally driven convection should
be only isolated in nature.

An H50 low pressure system and associated surface trof will
slowly approach the region from the west as we head through mid
week into Thursday. This will lead to an increase in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms with time. Overall vertical motions
should be maximized Thursday as the mid level difluent flow
increases just ahead of the mid level low. Though instabilities
will should be formidable (MUCAPES 2000+ J/KG) Thursday afternoon,
wind flow aloft is expected to be weak which should limit much of an
organized thunderstorm risk. Increased cloud cover will also
serve to hold afternoon temps down in mid 80s, a bit below normal
for the official first day of Summer!

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Following WPC`s lead, we have slightly above average confidence in
the 12z/00z GFS/ECMWF model depictions. Used a 2/3 EC/ECENS and 1/3
GFS/GEFS blend for the long term.

Friday, an upper low is forecast over MO. The low should track
northeast across IL, and end up over the Great Lakes region by 12z
Saturday. Will carry high chance PoPs for convection Friday, then
taper off PoPs Friday night. The upper flow will flatten Saturday
ahead of h5 trof that will move from over the Central Plains to the
Mid Mississippi Valley region Sunday. Some areas will see a lull
Saturday, with a surface front moving back to our north, and in
between the two aforementioned upper systems. Saturday night through
Sunday, PoPs increase as the second wave approaches. By 12z Monday,
a surface frontal boundary will be across the region. So we continue
with our chance PoPs for convection as the flow aloft remains
somewhat active. Temperatures should be near to slightly above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the Wednesday morning.
Southwest winds will gust 10-15 kts during the daylight hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM