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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191950
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The main concern for tonight is frost potential. A strong surface
high pressure system will move east across Iowa tonight. Following
the dissipation of cumulus clouds around sunset, skies will be
clear tonight. Gusty winds will decrease with loss of daytime
heating, however all guidance maintains a light northeast wind
through the night. This wind will help to mitigate frost
formation, especially in areas unprotected from the wind. Lows
will be mostly in the mid 30s, except near 30 in the I-64
corridor. The impacts from tonight`s frost event will be
relatively minor compared to the freeze a few mornings ago. Lows
on the 17th were in the upper 20s in many areas north of the Ohio
River, and mostly below freezing elsewhere.

On Friday, a bone dry air mass will overspread our region. Precip
water values will fall below 0.25 inch. Cloud-free skies are
expected, which will help temps recover about 30 degrees from the
morning low despite northeast winds. Temps will fall rather
quickly Friday night under clear skies. Lows will be around 40.

Clouds will increase on Saturday ahead of a 500 mb closed low over
the Plains states. Warm advection associated with southeast winds
will boost highs into the 60s despite the decreasing sunshine.

As the low pressure system migrates eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday night, rain showers will overspread
parts of southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky. The timing
of the precip arrival is based mainly on the 12z gfs/gefs mean.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

ECMWF, GFS and the Canadian are in decent agreement taking a surface
low across the Gulf Coast states Sunday into Monday, centering the
low in the Georgia/South Carolina area around 18z Tuesday.  This is
a consistent solution from the ECMWF, with the GFS having gone the
way of the ECMWF.  This leads to increasing confidence in the first
part of the extended.  Showers are likely across the southern half
of the PAH forecast Sunday, with lesser chances north.  The better
chances for showers will become focused across our southeast
counties Sunday night into Monday as the surface low moves east and
the associated upper low moves just southeast of the PAH forecast
area.  Scattered showers will linger mainly east of the Mississippi
River Monday night into Tuesday due to the slow movement of the
upper low.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, confidence decreases with models
having different timing of an upper level trough.  GFS and Canadian
take the trough across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
while the ECMWF does it in the Wednesday to early Thursday time
frame.  Due to the closer agreement, went with a GFS/Canadian
solution for now, with scattered showers late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and dry conditions Wednesday night into Thursday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be 8 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals with readings in the lower 60s, then temperatures
will moderate a few degrees Tuesday through Thursday.  Overnight
lows will be near normal through the period in the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees mainly due to cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Area of low clouds over the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys
will be stubborn to dissipate this afternoon. Cigs have mostly
improved to vfr, and they should continue to rise through the
afternoon. Tonight will be clear as high pressure moves east across
northern Iowa and Illinois. Gusty winds this afternoon will
diminish as the high approaches, and winds should be only about 5
knots tonight. Clear skies will continue Friday morning with light
winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for ILZ080-081-
     084>094.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-082-
     083.

MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for INZ085>088.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for INZ081-082.

KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY