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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232328
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Tonight: An upper-level low and surface low will become vertically
stacked over the northern Plains late tonight. As this happens, a
cold front is expected to drift gradually eastward across western
Missouri while weakening. Precipitation is expected to
develop/continue along the front before weakening as it drifts away
from the boundary to the east overnight. Some of the precipitation
may make it into SEMO, but it will likely be isolated to scattered
at best. Either way, not expecting the precipitation to amount to
much. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60.

Sunday and Sunday night: The aformentioned frontal boundary will
continue to drift eastward; however, the frontal boundary and
advections will become less defined as the low pressure system
occludes well to the north of the area. The remnant frontal boundary
will still traverse the area, which will help to focus some weakly
forced isolated showers or possibly a stray thunderstorm by
Sunday afternoon and especially into Sunday evening. Similar to
Saturday night, not expected too much precipitation with this
feature, but some light rain will be possible. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to around 80s for Sunday with lows dropping into the
60s for Sunday night.

Monday into Monday night: The boundary is expected to continue
weakening and drifting east/southeast of the area. This will lead to
a gradual drying trend from west to east throughout the day. Again,
there may be some lingering light showers early in the day. The
deeper moisture will also depart the Quad State area by early
afternoon again, supporting the dry conditions by late afternoon
into the Monday night. Highs will be around 80 with overnight lows
around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A couple low-end chances for rain showers toward mid week and
slightly cooler temperatures will be the main focus of the long-term
portion of the forecast.

Upper-level troughing is expected to be in place across the Quad
State region through much of this forecast issuance, from Monday
through at least Thursday before a ridge begins to build across the
area. At the same time, the area will be on the
southern/southwestern edge of a broad high pressure system centered
over the New England States. The combination of these features will
keep temperatures a bit cooler. Intermittent increases in cloud
cover with shortwaves working through the base of the trough, will
also help to keep temperatures a bit lower.

Precipitation chances are a bit more challenging as low-level
moisture will be lacking through much of the week as will any
instability. There are still a few low-end chances as the
aforementioned waves pass through, with the best chances being
Wednesday and possibly Thursday. No notable deviations from the
blend of models with this forecast update in the extended.

Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the mid 50s. For comparison, average highs are in the low
80s for this time of year and average lows are in the mid 50s. As
mid-level ridging takes hold for Friday into next Saturday, expected
above normal temperatures to build back into the Quad State area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with gradually
increasing high and eventually mid clouds from the northwest and
west. Fog development overnight should be limited due to the
increasing clouds. An isolated shower is possibly at mainly KCGI
after 15z, but chances are too low to include in TAF. Winds will
be calm to light east/southeast tonight, becoming southeast around
4 kts after 14z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RST