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000
FXUS63 KPAH 082228
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
528 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

The warm frontal boundary along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders has
been slow to advance north today. As a result, most of the shower
activity has been confined to our far south and southwest
counties, with isolated showers lifting east across the rest of
the forecast area. Precipitation will end overnight (except,
perhaps, in our far north and northeast counties) as the warm
front lifts north through the forecast area. The warm front will
result in a non-diurnal temperature evolution tonight, with
temperatures warming from the lower 50s to lower 60s at 06z to
the middle and upper 60s by 12z Sunday.

Tricky forecast for Sunday. There will likely be remnant
convection from tonight`s activity forecast to develop across the
KS-MO corridor spreading from NW to SE across the forecast area
during the predawn to mid-morning hours. These storms do not look
to be severe, but the strongest of the storms could produce some
small hail. The severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon
will greatly depend on whether there is a lull in the rain and
diurnal heating occurs from the late morning into the early
afternoon. If there is, additional thunderstorm development is
likely ahead of the approaching surface cold front during the mid
afternoon through early evening. While mid-level lapse rates look
poor, the strong forcing, entrainment of mid-level dry air, and
ample low level shear will promote the development of linear
convective segments capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief spin- up tornado. This threat, should it
materialize, would be greatest across the MO Bootheel, far
southern IL, and southwest and south-central KY. Training
convection parallel to the cold front will produce locally heavy
rain of 1 to 2 inches. This could lead to some isolated flash
flooding for the waterlogged regions of the KY Pennyrile.

Gradient winds will also be an issue Sunday as the surface low
passes north and west of our CWA. Gusts of 30-35 mph from the
southwest are likely across the entire CWA, but there will likely
be a corridor of 40-45 mph gusts across the MO Bootheel, far
southern IL, and much of western KY where LLJ winds may more
efficiently mix down to the surface. Opted to issue a Wind
Advisory for these areas, with a Lake Wind Advisory for the rest
of the CWA from 12-22z.

Quiet weather returns for Sunday night through Monday as high
pressure builds south from the Upper Midwest. High temperatures
Monday will be 5-10 degrees below normal, in the middle to upper
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Much of the long term forecast period looks to feature quiet
weather with temperatures staying 5-10 degrees below normal
through much of the upcoming work week...then returning to near
normal values for next weekend. High pressure centered over the
Great Lakes will keep the main storm track to our south. The next
(but still small) chance for rain looks to arrive Thursday, but
models disagree greatly about the evolution of the surface
inflection. For now, the NBM`s slight to low chance PoPs across SW
Indiana and the KY Pennyrile look reasonable. Another chance of
rain looks to arrive Saturday afternoon as low pressure sweeps
across the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Mid and high clouds will continue across the area through 06z with
ESE winds 5 to 15 kts. Winds will increase and become more
southerly 06z-12z to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts, with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area in the 09z-12z
time frame. The chance will continue in the morning with activity
diminishing. Then around 16-18z, another round of storms may flare
up near the Ohio River and push ESE through the afternoon across
mainly west KY. Cigs will lower with time Sunday down through MVFR
to occasionally IFR, with gusty SSW winds 15 to 25 kts or higher.
Sunday afternoon a cold front will push across the area and switch
winds to the W, then NW. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely
prevail in close proximity to the front as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ088>094.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>087.

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ109>112-114.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107-108.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$