Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

General high pressure will be in place through the short term
while mid level flow transitions from west-northwesterly to
northwesterly. Meanwhile, as faster flow aloft sweeps through the
upper Midwest, a back door surface cold front is progged to sink
through the PAH forecast area tonight/Thu morning, resulting in a
surface wind shift from southwesterly to northeasterly. This
generally light wind regime will remain in place through the short
term.

Skies will be virtually cloudless through Thu. After that, some
increase in clouds is expected, especially west of the MS River
during the day Fri. This will be associated with a shortwave that
models indicate will be shunted from the southern Plains into the
deep South by northern stream energy aloft. At this time, it
appears no measurable pcpn will occur in our region as the feature
skips by.

Above average temps in place now will be tempered somewhat by the
front on Thu, especially in the Evansville Tri-State region. Temps
on Fri should return to near seasonable averages.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Quiet weather will continue into the weekend, as high pressure noses
south from Canada into the region. Temperatures on Saturday should
be very similar to Friday, although possibly a bit cooler in the
Evansville Tri State region due to some stronger cold air advection
into these areas. Highs may struggle to reach 50 degrees up in these
locales, with lower 50s expected elsewhere.

The center of this surface high will shift east Saturday night into
Sunday and this will allow for surface winds to eventually during
the day on Sunday. An upper level ridge will also shift east and
become centered over the area on Sunday. We will see fairly strong
warm air advection in the lower levels, which will lead to warmer
high temperatures for Sunday afternoon with readings in the mid to
upper 50s in most locations.

On Monday, southerly flow will increase as the gradient tightens
with a low pressure system to our west and high pressure continuing
to trek eastward. Therefore, we will likely see highs jump to around
60 or even into the lower 60s, given the degree of warmer air
expected to move in at the lower levels. This increase in
temperatures will carry on into Tuesday as well, where we will see
readings into the mid 60s as the surface winds increase even more.

However, we will be seeing an increase in clouds ahead of our next
weather system by that time. Models are in fairly good agreement on
when we will likely see some rain move into the area. Precipitation
should hold of until later on Tuesday night and into the day on
Wednesday, as a cold front approaches and then eventually moves
through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Generally clear skies expected. Calm winds overnight will become
light easterly Thursday behind a weak cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM


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