Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 051720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Surface high pressure and weak troughing aloft will persist over
the four state region through the short term portion of the
forecast. 500mb heights will slowly increase through the period,
and gradual air mass modification is expected. However, southerly
winds are not expected to develop, even on Friday, so the
modification will be slow.

The 00Z models continue to push some convection toward southeast
Missouri late Thursday night into Friday morning, but it will run
out of its warm, moist inflow before reaching our region. Will
keep a slight chance of showers in the western four counties of
southeast Missouri in the forecast, but more than likely it will
remain dry.

Similarly, the latest guidance tries to push convection into
southeast Missouri and/or southern Illinois late Friday night.
This time there should be some 15-20kt westerly inflow to
potentially support convection. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings indicate
that there may also be some elevated instability, so will keep a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the northwest
periphery of the forecast area late Friday night.

High temperatures will climb back into the middle 80s areawide on
Friday, which is still a few degrees below normal. Dewpoints will
also be on the increase with middle 60s expected Friday. This may
allow the heat index across the south to possibly reach 90 for an
hour or two. It will still feel much better than what we dealt
with for most of July.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For the long term forecast period, the 0z deterministic model suite
has trended away from the northwesterly flow in the mid- and upper-
levels that was depicted yesterday and towards a zonal flow
configuration. However, this trend should not significantly impact
the sensible weather forecast. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the the central/southern Appalachians will direct heat
and moisture towards the PAH CWA from the Gulf of Mexico. Saturday
through Monday, a slow-moving warm front, associated with surface
low pressure moving northeast across the central Plains, will lift
through the area.

This front, combined with weak impluses embedded within the zonal
mid-level pattern, will bring a daily chance of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of precipitation
will be centered around the heat of the day. POPs increase by
Tuesday into the middle of next week, as a cold front tries to
approach the region from the northwest.

Temperature and humidity levels will be typical of those found in
the first half of August. High temperatures will climb into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Dew point values will generally be in the lower to middle
70s. This will yield heat index values in the middle to upper 90s
during the afternoon hours in most areas. Some of our historically
swampier locales along the AR/TN border could see heat index values
top out in the lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The TAFs are VFR. A decent cu field has already developed and has
gotten fairly thick in places, so will continue with a tempo for
a ceiling (VFR) for a while this afternoon. Cu should dissipate by
around 00Z and winds will be light and variable. Could see an
increase in mid clouds tonight into Thursday. Winds will be
northeast around 5 kts on Thursday as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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