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281
FXUS63 KPAH 231149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The 00Z guidance has trended warmer and a bit wetter through
today. The consensus of guidance has over 3/4" over our northwest
including the Flood Watch area, with over an inch over much of
west Kentucky. The Flood Watch will continue as is through 15Z
just to be safe with the combination of rainfall and snowmelt.

Ran with the consensus of short term guidance for temperatures
through the day. This results in a warmer forecast and less
potential for a change over to snow on the back edge of the
precipitation. It may still happen, but it would be very brief and
too warm for it to amount to anything on the saturated ground.

We have had some gusts over 30kts over the western half of the
area with KCGI and KMDH at or just below Wind Advisory criteria.
The consensus of short term guidance has wind gusts increasing
to over 30kts over most of the region through daybreak, and even
keeps them over the Pennyrile through 15Z. As a result, we have
extended the Wind Advisory a couple of hours til 15Z. It will be
done well before that in southeast Missouri, but we can cancel
western areas early if necessary.

Surface high pressure will settle south of the area tonight, so
northwest winds will slowly diminish through the night in the
northeast, but may not drop below 10 mph. Low temperature guidance
is centered on the lower 20s throughout the region, and generally
looks good, with some upper teens possible in our more sheltered
areas (KMVN).

The 00Z models bring the Arctic front into our northwest by
midday Thursday. This will result in a midday high around freezing
in the far northwest and then falling temperatures through the
afternoon across much of southern Illinois. Much of the southern
half of the area should reach at least 40 for highs.

Strong cold advection through Thursday night will take temperatures
into the single digits and lower teens for lows. Wind chills
bottom out at -8 at KMVN overnight, but most of the area will
drop to zero or below. The exceptions will be southern portions of
southeast Missouri and the Purchase and Lakes regions of west
Kentucky where readings will range from zero to 5 above.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region midday Friday,
and southwest winds will develop by afternoon. Another upper-level
impulse will shift southeast toward the area in the afternoon. It
may bring some light snow to the Mt Vernon and Fairfield Illinois
region by the end of the day. This will most likely result in
flurries, but a light dusting cannot be ruled out at this time.
In general, confidence with these types of systems is not that
great, so we will continue to monitor it closely for more of an
impact.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The longwave mid level pattern across the CONUS was depicted with
reasonable agreement by the latest medium range model runs.
Pronounced cyclonic flow is progged to continue throughout the
extended forecast period, with periodic low amplitude shortwaves
moving through. The models tend to have a bit of trouble locking
onto these minor features and their resultant surface reflections.
Therefore, the coverage and timing of pcpn for the PAH forecast area
will continue to fluctuate through most of the extended forecast
period.

Minor perturbation(s) in the pattern have been advertised by the
models to different degrees over the weekend time frame. The current
initialization blend now suggests a PoP maximum of low chance
category (over mostly the eastern half of our region) on Sat night,
mainly due to the CMC, and another chance PoP max over the
Evansville Tri-State region Sun morning. Thermal profiles suggest
pcpn type will be mostly the frozen type in the northern half of the
region, with more likelihood of a changeover to rain during the
daylight hours in the southern half. The GFS/ECMWF have been
downplaying the significance of the feature(s) for us lately
(especially the ECMWF). Model consensus does suggest there will be
some semblance of a surface wind shift late Sat. We may see some
sunshine by the end of the weekend, especially in the southwestern
half of the region.

The forecast becomes more reliable by Mon morning as the GFS/ECMWF
models and ensemble means showed substantial energy aloft diving out
of western Canada. A significant surface low is progged to track
across mainly central parts of MO/IL/IN on Mon, dragging a cold
front through our region. It appears that there will be enough
moisture advection and lift associated with the front for a solid
band of pcpn to develop Mon afternoon and evening, ending overnight
with fropa. This system should be a fast mover, limiting QPF to
perhaps a third of an inch or less. A light wintry mix is possible
early Mon north of I-64, but pcpn type is expected to be mostly rain
in the warm sector, switching to snow Mon night. The Pennyrile
region may receive the most snowfall.

There should be at least partial clearing on Tue, with an end to a
warming trend as an arctic airmass blasts in on northwesterly winds.
At this time, highs Tue are forecast to be about 20 degrees colder
than highs on Mon...only in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

MVFR ceilings will be the rule through this evening at all sites,
with some clearing from west to east thereafter. Widespread rain
this morning will result in mostly MVFR or better visibilities,
but a brief period of IFR cannot be ruled out. The rain will gradually
come to an end from the west through the day. A brief change over
to snow cannot be completely ruled out, but impacts should be
minimal. Strong south winds at the beginning of the period will
diminish some and eventually veer to west or northwest through
early afternoon. Lesser gustiness may continue well into the
evening before finally subsiding to 10kt or less overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.

     Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ077-078-081>086-
     088.

MO...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     109>112-114.

     Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>109.

IN...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

     Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for INZ081-085.

KY...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS