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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221208
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
708 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

South to southwest winds will increase across the region today
ahead of an approaching cold front. By late morning, winds will
increase to around 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. A Lake Wind
Advisory will be in effect today from 15z to 01z. It will continue
to be breezy into the overnight, but speeds should drop to below
criteria.

As for the cold front, models continue to bring the front into
the PAH forecast area tonight, though a bit slower than
yesterdays`s model runs. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
hold off until late this afternoon for our far northwest and
western counties, then scattered to numerous showers and storms
should spread southeast across all but our far southeast counties
by around 06z. Coverage is expected to gradually decrease late
tonight as convection continues to spread southeast with the
front weakening as it moves across our region, and thunder chances
will also taper off. The front should be southeast of our region
by around midday, so scattered showers will still be possible
across our southeast half of counties early Monday morning, coming
to an end by around midday.

Temperatures today and tonight will remain above normal with highs
today in the upper 80s and lows tonight in the middle to upper
60s. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front
Monday into Monday night, with highs Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, and lows Monday night in the middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Above average confidence in much of the extended forecast due to
good overall model agreement.

Surface high pressure will be situated over the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions for our region. As the high
shifts east, southerly return flow develops Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Mid level energy is depicted diving down across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, with an associated cold front pushing southeast
towards our area later Wednesday. Although the best forcing will
remain well north, there continues to be a signal for at least some
light precipitation, starting as early as Tuesday night, and peaking
Wednesday night. This doesn`t appear to be a drought buster though
with fairly light QPF amounts forecast at this time.

The rest of the extended looks to be dry, as the upper level pattern
amplifies. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate strong ridging
developing over the southeast U.S. Fri/Sat and beyond. The net
result for our area will be a continued prolonged period of dry
weather and above/well above normal temperatures that begins late
next week and likely continues into at least the first few days of
October. Several more days with highs reaching 90 looks likely.

Beforehand, temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will only be
slightly above normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

VFR conditions expected into this evening as mid and high clouds
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. South to southwest
winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts by
midday, decreasing to 15 kts or less after 01z. Scattered
shra/tsra possible at KMVN after 01z, and at KEVV/KOWB/KCGI/KPAH
after 04z. MVFR conditions expected with shra/tsra.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...RST