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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261130
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

The rain has ended throughout the area, and the back edge of the
low clouds is making fast progress across the area and should be
east of the area shortly after sunrise. With full sunshine there
will be strong mixing to above 850mb, and northwest winds will be
quite gusty. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings have no more than 30kts in
the mixed layer, so we should not need a Wind Advisory today.
Plan on highlighting the winds in the HWO and Wx Story.

The winds should weaken considerably by sunset and there will be
good radiational cooling conditions tonight with surface dewpoints
forecast to be in the upper 30s over much of the region. The 00Z
consensus forecast low temperatures are generally in the middle
40s, but this may not be cool enough. Some locations may drop
below 40, but frost potential is still low. Of course if the
dewpoints trend any lower frost will be a concern tonight.

South winds will return on Saturday and skies will become mostly
cloudy. The models still advertise a brief period of intense warm
advection forcing moving eastward through the region mainly in the
afternoon. With a fairly stable and very dry airmass in place, the
likelihood of measurable precipitation seems pretty low. Will have
mostly low chance PoPs moving eastward through the day, but will
have very scant QPF. Any precipitation will be light and should
not last more than an hour.

Decent mixing will develop over western portions of the region
and may lead to south southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph for a
few hours Saturday afternoon. These winds could approach the Wind
Advisory criteria of 40 mph.

The associated cold front will move through the area Saturday
evening, and it still looks like this should make a dry passage.
Model soundings do generate some shallow instability beneath a
mid-level inversion based near 700mb, so a few light showers
cannot be ruled out in the evening. Deep convection is unlikely
over most of the region, but it is not completely out of the
question that a parcel could get past the mid-level inversion over
western portions of southeast Missouri in the early evening. Even
if this happens the instability will still be very weak, so there
is little concern for severe weather.

Surface high pressure will briefly settle over the region Sunday,
with high temperatures, under mostly sunny skies, only reaching
the lower to middle 60s which is well below normal levels.

Warm advection will return to the region Sunday night, and may
lead to some at least scattered showers, if not elevated
thunderstorms. Chances will be best across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, but the entire area will have at least a
slight chance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

The primary concern in the long term is the increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms next week, particularly from Tuesday night
on. While model depiction of the synoptic pattern is relatively
good, confidence in specifics remains lower than average due to
model differences in frontal position and precipitation placement.

A largely zonal flow pattern at the start of the week is forecast to
become increasingly southwesterly through mid week as a subtropical
ridge builds northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern
U.S. At the same time, a quasi stationary frontal boundary will
become established from the Plains across the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley. Ripples of energy streaming through the
southwest flow pattern and parallel to the front will provide the
necessary focus for periods of showers and thunderstorms through mid
week, especially along and north of the stalled boundary.

A look at the latest 00Z operational models reveals better agreement
in keeping the stalled frontal boundary largely northwest of the
area through Tuesday. Even the ECMWF has trended northward with the
boundary, but still not as much as the GFS or especially the CMC.
Even so, the consensus through Tuesday is to keep the main corridor
of convective activity northwest of the immediate forecast area. We
can`t completely rule out a small chance of showers or thunderstorms
during this time, especially across northern and western portions of
the area in closer proximity to the frontal zone. Dry conditions are
expected further south near the Tennessee border.

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive by Tuesday night
and continue through Wednesday and Thursday as convective complexes
to our west make progress into the area along and ahead of the
frontal zone. Confidence is still low as to how this plays out, with
largely unknown mesoscale interactions playing a substantial role.
Given the higher atmospheric humidity levels, locally heavy rain
will be a concern with any of the thunderstorms that develop. A few
strong/severe storms will also be possible, especially by mid week.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the period.
Highs should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

An MVFR ceiling may linger for the first hour or two of the
forecast at KOWB, otherwise the forecasts are VFR. Northwest winds
will gust 25-30kts through most of the day at all sites and then
die off completely this evening. Skies should be clear until the
overnight hours when mid-level clouds will increase across the
region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS