Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251633
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

High pressure will move east of the area today, allowing for modest
return flow. Guidance shows highs today reaching the mid 90s. With
dew points in the 60s, heat index values will be right in line with
our temperatures. Values will be highest across the Ozark Foothills,
possibly up around 100.

A front will approach the area tonight, and end up over southern IL
into SEMO close to the Mississippi. We will maintain our chance PoPs
for convection. The chance will continue Sunday as the front slowly
moves to the east. With daytime heating, and possibly some elevated
support, our PoPs should be highest during the day Sunday. We did
mute the NBM PoPs a bit, given convergence along the front isn`t
particularly strong. That, and upper level support is often lacking.
The chances will come to an end Sunday night, paving the way for a
dry and "cooler" Monday. Highs Monday should be in the upper 70s to
lower or mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

In the first half of the of the extended forecast period (Tuesday
through Thursday), the WFO PAH forecast area is primarily under the
influence of a mean low amplitude ridge.

From Thursday night into Saturday, a closed low in southern Canada
works to flatten the ridge over the WFO PAH forecast area, creating
a bifurcated zone of high pressure targeted to the southwest U.S.
and the middle Atlantic states, with the local area in a broad
trough/col. The warm and moist advection around the western edge of
the middle Atlantic and weak vorticity advection support create
enough instability and lift to provide for diurnal and non-diurnal
convection. The WFO PAH forecast area remains focused in this quasi-
baroclinic zone until late Friday night and Saturday, when the mean
zonal flow over the northern half of the U.S. shifts south,
reinforcing the baroclinic zone and the corresponding ageostrophic
response, supporting continued convection. At this point, chance
category PoP forecast for this time period seams reasonable.

Made minor PoP/QPF/Temperature/Dewpoint adjustment to focus in on
area of persistent/sustained convective activity through the latter
half of the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

A cold front will move southeast across the taf sites Sunday
morning. Ahead of the front, vfr conditions will persist through
this evening. Scattered cumulus clouds will be high-based today.

As the front draws closer, an area of thunderstorms will likely
approach the kmvn/kcgi corridor this evening. The latest model
guidance indicates these storms will weaken or dissipate before
reaching the taf sites in the 04z to 08z time frame.

Winds will become northwest 5 to 10 kt behind the front Sunday
morning. Several hours of mvfr cigs and perhaps some showers or weak
thunderstorms will occur along the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...MY


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