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000
FXUS63 KPAH 052331
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain is possible through this evening, mainly in
  eastern portions of the Quad State.

- Widespread rainfall is expected between Friday evening and
  Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are possible with lightning and
  heavy rain the primary hazards.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Low pressure is moving southeastward through Indiana early this
afternoon. A few light showers will be possible through the
afternoon and evening hours, mainly in eastern portions of the
Quad State as the base of the upper trough moves through. Breezy
winds shift to northwesterly for mid to late afternoon with that
trough progression. Temperatures will max out in the lower half
of the 50s for most of the forecast area today. Winds will
continue to be around 5 mph late at night, so fog potential is
significantly reduced compared to last night. Lows in the near
30 to lower 30s range will only be reached after precipitation
has moved out, avoiding a switchover to stray flurries.

Midweek, high pressure moves across the Lower Mississippi River
Valley as a ridge builds over the Plains. Surface winds shift
to southerly late Wednesday, keeping highs only in the 40s.
Winds become breezy Thursday with late afternoon to evening
winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30+ mph in the west. Highs
surge to near 60 on Friday with southerly breezes keeping lows
in the lower 50s Friday night.

Two areas of low pressure form as a trough deepens in the west.
One forms near the Dakotas and progresses into Manitoba and
Ontario late in the week. The second forms just ahead of the
base of the trough in the Central/Southern Plains. Models
continue to disagree on positioning of this southern
disturbance, along with the speed of its northeastward
progression. The Canadian ensemble continues to be the fastest
progressing, while the Euro continues to have a subset of its
ensemble keeping substantial rainfall in the area as late as
Sunday night. Generally, precipitation starts in western
portions of the Quad State Friday evening, with widespread
rainfall late night through Saturday night. Thunder chances
remain with this system though severe potential continues to be
focused further south in ArkLaTex Saturday. With dry conditions
through the fall, these rains will mostly be beneficial though
will put a damper on outdoor activities Friday night and
Saturday.

PoPs remain through Sunday, though drop to the slight chance to
chance range. These precip chances may be further reduced as
future model runs provide clarity on end timing for this system.
A shift to northwesterly winds behind the front will bring in
cooler air, but precipitation should move out before
temperatures fall below freezing Sunday night. Models suggest a
shift to zonal flow by Tuesday with a clipper system tracking
towards the Great Lakes area, keeping the Quad State dry early
next week with highs near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

The main concern tonight is MVFR cigs as a cold front has moved
east of the region. Have included a TEMPO for brief IFR
conditions at KMVN where there is a 40-50% prob cigs fall below
1 kft AGL. Otherwise, gusty NW winds around 20 to 25 kts will
diminish later tonight as the pressure gradient weakens with
high pressure building in from the west. NW winds will become 5
to 10 kts early Wednesday morning before backing more westerly
in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DW