Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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336 FXUS63 KPAH 121135 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front may bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the I-64 corridor Thursday night. - The first heat wave of the summer will begin Sunday and continue through much of next week. - Isolated showers and storms possible Monday through next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper-level energy moving east southeast into the Great Lakes on Thursday will bring a weak cold front to the region Thursday night into Friday. This will result in a chance of thunderstorms mainly along the I-64 corridor and the Evansville Tri State late Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns with any storms late Thursday night. Confidence in how far the boundary makes it through the region Friday is rather low, but most of the 00Z guidance does not generate much, if any, QPF during the day, and WPC QPF is virtually nil. Therefore, the NBM keeps the Quad State dry. There will be some decent instability south of the boundary, so an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out. We will keep an eye on it, but for now Friday is dry. The NBM brings the boundary through the entire region Friday and surface high pressure behind it will bring some drier and slightly less hot air to the northeast half of the region for Saturday. South winds return on Sunday as high pressure aloft builds over the Quad State. This combination will lead to a very hot day with high temperatures in the middle 90s. Factoring in dewpoints in the middle and upper 60s, heat indices will approach 100 degrees over much of the region. The main questions for next week are how strong the upper ridge will be, and will a mid/upper-level disturbance be able to touch off anything more than isolated thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday? The ECMWF has been consistently stronger with the upper ridge over the Quad State and has plenty of support from its ensemble. The ECENS indicated a 30 year return interval for the upper ridge, so it stands to reason if it is right we will likely stay dry. Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are not as strong with the ridge and generate more QPF mainly during the heat of the day Monday through Wednesday. The NBM keeps at least slight chance PoPs going each of these days, mainly in the afternoon and evening. WPC seems to be leaning toward the drier ECMWF and has virtually no QPF for our area. In the absence of widespread convection, temperatures will climb well above 90 degrees Sunday through at least next Wednesday. With increasing moisture, lows will only drop into the lower and middle 70s. This will be our first prolonged heat wave of the summer, and it could last through next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 MVFR fog at KMVN may need a few minutes to lift this morning. Otherwise, the TAFs are VFR. Surface high pressure overhead will keep winds light and variable through the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS