007
FXUS63 KPAH 220648
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat index values around 100 will peak around 105 by
  Tuesday.

- Best rain/storm chances will accompany the approach and
  passage of cold fronts Sunday and Wednesday. The Wednesday
  fropa will end the daily oppression of heat/humidity as
  slightly cooler and drier air arrives for the week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft remains strong today as
the ridge anchors over Appalachia and much of the South. We
think some of the model production of qpf to our east will
remain there and have chosen to keep pops silent given the
anticipated strength of overall columnar subsidence and warm
capping temps aloft.

Dew points today range from the mid 60s to around 70 and hover
in the lower 70s Sunday. More sunshine today vs Sunday means
highs today in the mid 90s vs highs Sunday in the lower 90s.
The net resultant Heat Index peaks around 100 degrees both days.

A cold front`s approach introduces pops in our north late
tonight, which peaks in the chance category range Sunday
afternoon/evening. MUCAPEs 2000-3000 J/KG along and ahead of
the front with 3KM Bulk Shear values of 20-25 kts supports the
broadly drawn Marginal risk that SPC arcs into our FA, however,
the best energy will remain displaced well to the north and
east in the vicinity of the primary low pressure system making
its passage from the Great Lakes into New England.

Temps soar right back into the mid (Monday) to upper (Tuesday)
90s as H8 temps peak around 22C Tuesday. Dew points by Tuesday
are likewise right back into the lower 70s, so Tuesday is the
likely headline day for Heat Index values which peak around/in
excess of the 105 degree Advisory threshold.

Another wave of energy not dissimilar to this weekend will
migrate from the Great Lakes to New England again on Wednesday
and once again, will trail its cold front along the Ohio Valley
and thru the PAH FA. We can`t argue the NBM`s high chance to
likely pops with its approach/passage and suspect this will be
our next best chance for strong storms/heavy rains as well,
which are reflected by the painting of Marginal risk exceeding
FFG in the extended WPC graphic.

Cooler and drier air works in after this 2nd fropa, which brings
a nice respite from the daily heat/humidity as we finish out the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Today will look not unlike yesterday and the day before with
high pressure the predominant synoptic player for our sensible
weather. Patchy pre dawn fog may offer restrictions to VSBYS but will
burn off quickly as the sun rises and return a Visual Flight
Rules forecast for the rest of the calendar day. Clouds will
increase late tonight into tmrw morning as a cold front
approaches from the north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$