724
FXUS63 KPAH 141139
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of thunderstorms early this morning and again
  this afternoon mainly over southeast Missouri.

- Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru
  next week with daily heat indices around 100 degrees. An
  isolated heat of the day thunderstorm could bring some relief
  to a few locations Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

As expected, the overnight convection has struggled to make it
into the Quad State. A few showers will attempt to sag south
through western portions of southeast Missouri through sunrise,
but no lightning is expected and rainfall will be under a tenth
of an inch. Some scattered convection over central Illinois may
dive toward the Tri State through daybreak. For now will have
some very slight chance PoPs in the far northeast for this
possibility.

The HREF does not generate any convection across the Quad State
today, but with moisture pooling over the region moderate
instability is expected. It appears that rather deep mixing
will occur over southeast Missouri, and with some help from the
Ozark Foothills, a few high-based thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. Some gusty winds, torrential downpours and lightning will
be the primary concerns. A few locations over the western half
of the region could see heat indices reach 100 degrees this
afternoon.

The cold front that moves through the region today will have
more of an impact on dewpoints tonight and Saturday than
on temperatures. While dewpoints over most of the region
Saturday afternoon will be in the lower 60s, if not lower, 70
degree dewpoints could hang on over Carter and Ripley counties.
With heat indices there once again near 100 degrees, it is
reasonable to consider some isolated diurnal development.
However, a GFS sounding near Van Buren shows that warm mid-level
air should easily cap any attempt at convective initiation
Saturday afternoon.

South winds and low-level moisture will return to the entire
region Sunday. Deep mixing is expected once again and
temperatures are expected to soar into the middle 90s. Factoring
in the moisture it will feel like 100 over most of the region.
A very isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out in
the afternoon over the southern half of the region, but the
chance is just too low to mention at this time.

For all of next week high pressure aloft will be the dominant
feature on the weather map. It will initially be centered to the
east of the region, but by the second half of the week it is
expected to build westward over the Quad State. The ECMWF
continues to champion the ridge through the week, with the
ECENS indicating a 30 year return interval on the 500mb heights
Wednesday through Friday.

With weak disturbances riding northward through the region
early in the week, isolated afternoon thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out Monday through Wednesday. The greatest chance will be
over southeast Missouri on Tuesday, but that is only about a 25%
chance. In the absence of thunderstorms, heat indices will
likely reach 95 to 100 degrees throughout the region each
afternoon next week.

Summer appears to be here for the long haul!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The TAFs are VFR. A weak cold front will turn the winds to the
northwest at under 10kts by midday. An intermittent 3-5kft
ceiling is possible throughout the area today. Light winds are
expected tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS