826
FXUS61 KPBZ 091126
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
726 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and/or drizzle will continue through 9am this
morning with a passing cold front. Isolated rain chances are
expected north of Pittsburgh after sunset. Below average
temperatures are projected Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A passing cold front will keep light precipitation chances
  elevated through 9am this morning.
- Near to below average temperatures are expected with a passing
  cold front today.

--------------------------------------------------------------

A cold front is currently tracking through the region, light
precipitation is being noted in surface observations. By late
morning, most precipitation will likely be tracking across the
Laurel Highlands and brief ridging will lead the way for some
clouds breaking up.

A new shortwave, over the Great Lakes, is expected to track
into the region late this evening and isolated showers may
develop near I-80. Otherwise, temperatures will range in the
upper-60s to mid-70s; clouds and rain north of Pittsburgh will
keep a few areas below average by a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain/drizzle may continue into early Monday morning
  north of Pittsburgh with a passing shortwave.
- Despite cold advection, clouds will keep temperatures near
  average.
- Temperatures will range 10 to 15 degrees below average Monday
  afternoon with clouds and lingering cold air aloft.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A building ridge axis over Minnesota and Iowa will reinforce
cold air from the north across Lake Erie. Any moisture
associated with an exiting low pressure system over the North
Atlantic may stir a few stray showers/drizzle across the region
through Monday evening. Otherwise, with clouds and 850mb temps
between 2 to 3 Celsius, temps will struggle to climb into the
60s north of Pittsburgh and may linger in the low to mid-60s
elsewhere.

High pressure and subsidence are favored for Monday night,
promoting clearing skies and more efficient radiational cooling.
Expect area low temperature to be 10 degrees below the daily
average, with a low probability for pre-dawn river valley fog
formation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An advancing ridge over the Midwest will return dry and warm
  conditions to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
- An ejecting trough may return thunderstorm chances to the
  region Thursday/Friday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble models continue to favor gradual height rises over the
Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure generally is anchored along the Atlantic Coast.
Therefore, dry and quiet weather will prevail.

A shift in the synoptic pattern is expected late Thursday with
a new upper-level trough ejecting over the Great Lakes. A
number of ensemble members suggest thunderstorm chances return
late Thursday into Friday with the break down of the ridge and
warm, moist conditions return to the region under southwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is making its way through the area to kick off the
TAF period, with broken to overcast MVFR cigs and light rain
showers ongoing along and immediately trailing the front.
Clouds should begin to scatter and lift to VFR by or shortly
after 15Z, aided by daytime heating/mixing and drier air
advecting into the region from the northwest. VFR conditions and
breezy west to northwest winds then prevail throughout the
remainder of the day. Winds settle this evening with the loss
of daytime mixing while thickening mid-level clouds stream back
into the region ahead of the next approaching disturbance.
Cloud bases gradually lower overnight and MVFR cigs creep back
in from the north after 06Z, impacting all area terminals by
the end of the current 24hr TAF cycle.

.Outlook...
Ceiling restrictions and a few isolated showers are expected
Monday with another crossing upper trough and reinforcing cold
front. VFR returns Tuesday through Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak