Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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562 FXUS61 KPBZ 100808 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period. Thunderstorm chances may return Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Pockets of river valley fog may develop before sunrise. - Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow. - A few light showers may develop after 2pm. -------------------------------------------------------------- 3am Update: Added a brief period of river valley fog due to radiational cooling for north of I-70 through 6am. Previous Discussion: Cloud coverage will increase just before dawn from the north as a new shortwave ejects across the Great Lakes. With spots of clearing early this morning, temperatures will drop five degrees below average due to radiational cooling. Dry, quiet is likely through early afternoon. A few stray showers may develop downstream of Lake Erie as the shortwave enters eastern Ohio/western PA. With 850mb temps only ranging between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, MaxT temps will struggle to reach 70F north of I-70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop. - Cool conditions persist into Tuesday. - Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average temperatures across the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range between 60 to 95% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to 45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where persist clear conditions are likely. Hi-Res model guidance are also suggesting pockets of fog in eastern Ohio and along the West Virginia ridges. However, the probability of hazardous driving conditions (low visibility) is still considered low. Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from the southwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday. - Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be considered strong to severe. - Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable late week into early next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday. Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several runs of the long range models suggest convection may be organized along the cold front. Probability of organized convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to 40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance. Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will prevail through the overnight with winds 5 knots or less. Ceiling restrictions will return early Monday as another weak cold front crosses the area and cold advection in northwest flow reinforces low level moisture. Latest ensemble probabilities have trended less aggressive with restrictions reaching as far south as PIT with about a 30-50% chance there. Confidence is highest that FKL/DUJ see MVFR CIG restrictions as probability continues to advertise near an 80% chance. Will evaluate the incoming guidance overnight, but trends are toward possibly sparing most sites from MVFR and instead bottoming out at low-end VFR. Post-frontal cold air will keep low to mid level clouds in place through much of the afternoon, eventually scattering from NW to SE by Monday evening with an incoming push of drier air. There may be a brief, isolated shower or two up around FKL/DUJ in the 09Z-15Z timeframe, but confidence in that occurring remains low and impacts (in addition to the ongoing MVFR CIGs) would be minimal. Gradient induced northwesterly wind will see a slight uptick from around 4-7 kts ahead of the front to around 7-10 knots with occasional gusts to 15 kts behind the front. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Rackley/MLB