989
FXUS61 KPHI 180751
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
351 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure dissipates across southern Appalachia
while a secondary low slowly organizes off the Mid Atlantic
coast, bringing increasing chances for showers across our area
through midweek. Unsettled conditions persist through the end of
the week and possibly into the weekend this offshore low
lingers with weak high pressure struggling to build in from the
west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers continue to overspread the area this morning as an area of
low pressure is developing near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
This weak coastal low will gradually move up the coast through today
and tonight, ending up about 100 miles east of Long Beach Island by
tomorrow morning. This will keep a moist onshore flow in place.
Meanwhile, an upper level low over the western Carolinas continues
to spin, with a shortwave lifting up the eastern side of the closed
low into our area, aiding shower development. This setup will result
in a cloudy and dreary period through tonight with off and on
showers and perhaps some heavier downpours, especially along the
coast. Rainfall amounts will be around a half inch to an inch over
southern Delmarva and the New Jersey coast, with around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch around the I-95 corridor and gradually decreasing
amounts into the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos. WPC introduced
a very small MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for the New Jersey
coast as any heavy rain that does fall could result in ponding on
some roadways due to poor drainage from higher tides.

Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s. With a somewhat
tropical airmass in place and lots of cloud cover, temperatures will
not drop much tonight, with low to mid 60s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
It`ll remain unsettled across most areas during the short term. An
upper trough will remain across the region and the weak surface low
offshore will continue to circulate low level moisture across the
area. Clouds will be widespread across NJ/Delmarva and less so for
the western counties. Scattered showers are possible both Thu/Fri,
but the areas across eastern NJ are the most favored spots to
see any rain. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in
the mid/upper 70s Thu before cooling a few degrees headed into
Friday with highs largely in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upcoming weekend looks rather benign across the Middle Atlantic.
The upper trough that has been across the area late this week will
weaken allowing a weak ridge from the west to move in. At the
surface, high pressure well to the northeast ridges back across
the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. Overall, no
significant wet weather makers but since the airmass will be
humid and somewhat onshore, a few daytime showers are possible.
We`ll just have slight chance pops for Sat/Sun with the
coastal/Delmarva areas (probably) most favored. Monday now looks
drier with weak high pressure finally shifting overhead. Drier
weather sticks around into Tuesday before the next system begins
to move in from the west later in the day.

Temperatures will be close to normal Saturday with mid/upper 70s for
highs most areas. After that, the onshore flow and more clouds will
keep readings a bit cooler than normal with mostly low 70s for
highs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...VFR for the Lehigh Valley terminals, with MVFR/IFR
conditions developing for the I-95 terminals. Ceilings will end up
right around 1000 feet, so some fluctuation between IFR and MVFR
likely by late tonight. IFR at KACY and KMIV with ceilings under
1000 feet. Some light scattered showers around, but not expecting
any visibility impacts. Winds out of the northeast around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence in timing and extent of restrictions.

Wednesday...VFR for the Lehigh Valley terminals. MVFR and IFR
conditions for the I-95 terminals will continue through the morning
with some improvement during the afternoon back to VFR as ceilings
lift. KMIV will likely stay MVFR through the day with IFR prevailing
at KACY. Some showers remain possible, mainly from the I-95 corridor
on east. Heavier downpours around KACY could result in brief lower
visibility. Northeast winds 5-10 kt, gusting 15-20 knots in the
afternoon, especially for ACY and MIV. Moderate confidence overall,
but lower confidence with timing of improving conditions.

Wednesday Night...Primarily VFR for the Lehigh Valley and I-95
terminals. Low ceilings hang around the New Jersey coast, resulting
in either MVFR or IFR ceilings at KMIV and KACY. Winds out of the
north/northeast around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence overall.


Outlook...

Thu thru Sunday... Mostly VFR. Widely scattered showers with short
periods of lower CIGS/VSBYs possible.

&&

.MARINE...
For the Delaware Bay...The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for
the upper Delaware Bay where gusts should remain below 25 kt. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for the lower
Delaware Bay as gusts near 25 kt are possible, mainly near the mouth
of the bay. For the afternoon and overnight period, no marine
headlines expected for the bay as winds will be around 10-20 kt out
of the northeast.

For the ocean zones...Small Craft Advisory in effect through
Thursday as seas around 5-7 feet are expected. Winds out of the
northeast around 15-20 kt with some gusts around 25 kt.

Outlook...

SCA for ocean zones will now be extended through 6PM Thursday.
Seas through that time will remain above 5ft. Additional
extensions are likely, with seas expected to build into the
weekend, upwards of 7 feet. NNE winds Thursday around 15-20 kts
will ramp up on Friday, flirting with 25+ kt gusts into the
weekend.

Rip currents...

For Wednesday, east winds will decrease slightly to around 15
mph but breaking waves remain 2 to 4 feet with an 8 to 9 second
period. Therefore, the HIGH risk for the development of rip
currents was maintained and a Rip Current Statement remains in
effect through Wednesday for all beaches.

For Thursday, winds are forecast to shift more shore parallel
out of the north-northeast and decrease to 10-15 mph. Breaking
waves also decrease slightly to 2-3 feet with a 6-8 second
period. Currently, a MODERATE risk for the development of rip
current is forecast for all beaches as a result.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisories for tonight`s high tide (Cape May,
Atlantic, and Cumberland in NJ and Sussex and Kent in
Delaware) have expired. Will go ahead and re-issue later this
morning as some minor flooding is expected, but could go longer
than one tidal cycle with the next advisory.

We also will likely need to issue further advisories for the
rest of the NJ coast at some point later this week with
prolonged onshore flow and water piling up, but tonight`s high
tide only produced spotty minor flooding within Ocean,
Monmouth, and Middlesex Counties. Flooding concerns will be
primarily with the evening high tide as it is the higher of the
astronomical tides but spotty minor flooding is forecast with
the morning high tide as well and may become more widespread
during this tide cycle as well later in the week as water piles
with the sustained onshore winds.

For the upper Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, only
spotty minor tidal flooding is expected for this week.

No tidal flooding is expected along the northeastern shore of
Maryland currently at the moment.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara
LONG TERM...MJL/OHara
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...