548
FXUS65 KPUB 141726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Saturday with a low end chance for thunderstorms far
  southern portions of the southeast plains.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over the mountain
  valleys and plains on Sunday afternoon

- Above average temperatures are expected next week and strong
  winds are possible on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Heights rise over southern CO under general southwest flow aloft as
the southern U.S. upper ridge amplifies today before shifting
eastward tonight.  Temperatures should rebound a few degrees across
the area for Saturday with temperatures returning to a few degrees
above normal.  Dry southwest flow aloft continues which will allow
dew points to fall off into the 20s and low 30s for the
mountains/valleys and I-25 corridor counties in the afternoon. Winds
look lighter today so the risk of critical fire weather conditions
looks low at this point.

Meanwhile southeasterly low level flow across the plains will allow
50 dew points to translate westward in the afternoon with mean CAPE
off HREF in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep layer shears are weak but
do improve towards 00z, and we be lacking much of a trigger. However
a few CAMS generate an isolated storm or two across the far eastern
plains in the afternoon.  If a storm can trigger and tap some mid to
upper 50 dew points, some locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and
gusty outflow winds will be possible. Baca county may be most
favored for this low end possibility. Otherwise, the remainder of
the forecast area will stay dry through the late afternoon and
evening hours.  Moisture starts to spread up from the southwest late
tonight but clear skies and good radiational cooling should allow
for a chilly night across the high mountain valleys where lows will
fall into the 30s. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Sunday:

The general flow aloft on Sunday will be from the southwest over
southern Colorado and embedded in that flow will be a shortwave that
will propagate overhead throughout the day. The shortwave will
create a couple of things, the first is some gusty winds over the
plains and the mountain valleys - wind gusts will be around 30 to 35
MPH at its strongest. The second main impact will be showers and
thunderstorms. The wave itself will create weak convection over the
mountains with the gusty thunderstorm winds. Over the plains a
surface low will tighten a moisture gradient over the far eastern
plains creating around 600 to 900 J/kg of MUCAPE - there is higher
values over western Kansas, so if any of the better surface moisture
sloshes further west into Colorado some higher values will be
possible. At this point in time however, the 600 to 900 J/kg seems
reasonable, meaning likely sub-severe thunderstorms develop close to
the Kansas border with the main impacts being nickel sized hail and
40 to 50 mph wind gusts. One last thing to keep an eye out for would
be critical fire weather conditions over the mountain valleys and
the eastern plains, but at this point in time, the thresholds are
not quite being met. For example, areas that are likely to hit the
wind gusts threshold (the San Luis Valley and the far eastern
plains) have too high of RH values and the places that will likely
hit the RH value threshold have too weak of winds. Therefore no fire
weather products will be issued right now, but the thresholds are
close to being met across all of the lower elevations.

Monday through Friday:

A really interesting set-up is expected throughout the work week. A
closed low is expected to form over the western United States making
its way over California by Monday and it will continue to propagate
to the east northeast reaching western Wyoming by late Tuesday
night. Having this cyclone track puts the southwest to
northeast oriented jet streak associated with the closed low
over southern Colorado. All of this means that there will be
strong winds over the region, not so much on Monday, but on
Tuesday. Right now the southwesterly winds look to be around 30
MPH sustained with with gusts up to around 40 to 45 MPH.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will form, but I
believe they will be located where the strongest PVA is
located, which is hard to pinpoint right now. A down day is
expected on Wednesday, but by Thursday yet another closed low is
being resolved over the western United States - and similar
impacts, strong winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are being resolved on Thursday and Friday.

The southwesterly winds that are being resolved throughout the whole
week will aid in keeping the temperatures warm, around 5F above
average for this time of year - think high 80s and low 90s over the
plains. The mountain valleys will be right around average for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF
sites this forecast period, while winds remain generally light
and diurnally driven. However, a brief period of steadier winds
with a few gusts around 20 kt will be possible across ALS this
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ