Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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077 FXUS65 KPUB 172113 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 313 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small window for isolated strong to severe storms across the far eastern plains this afternoon. - High fire danger will continue through this evening, with critical fire weather conditions once again across the San Luis Valley on Tuesday. - Cooler and unsettled on Wednesday. Showers expected with somewhat lower thunderstorm chances. - Unsettled weather and warmer temperatures continue Thursday onwards. Chances for storms vary each day, depending on instability and shear. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Latest radar imagery depicting some isolated thunderstorm development across the far eastern plains, mainly along and east of a Lamar to Eads line. These storms are developing right along the dry line, where upper 50s dew points and CAPE values up 2000 j/kg are in place. Shear is not overly high but this focus along with steeper lapse rates has supported a few robust cells this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, think a couple more strong to marginally severe storms will be possible right along the CO/KS border, before this development shifts east. Given the high DCAPE, think winds up to around 60 mph will be possible with any strong/severe storm. Elsewhere across the area, hot, dry, and windy conditions will continue to support critical fire weather conditions through this evening with no change to the current Red Flag Warning in effect. Cold front arrives later tonight into early Tuesday morning, providing some relief to the heat and increases in RH values over most locations across southern Colorado. Did lower temps on Tuesday but its possible they will need to be lowered more. Fire danger lowers on Tuesday but with dry and windy conditions still in place across the San Luis Valley, think critical fire weather conditions will once again be likely. So, have issued a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday. Precip chances are low on Tuesday, but its possible there could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the far southeast plains out ahead of the front. If a storm were to develop, would not be out of the question for there to be a strong to severe storm as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Wednesday-Thursday... Post-frontal airmass lingering Tuesday evening into Wednesday will set us up for a more active late-week, due to plentiful ambient moisture and increased cloud cover. Looking aloft, an upper trough will continue to deepen over the west coast while southwest flow over our area continues in increase. High temperatures on Wednesday will be much cooler than the previous several days, with mainly 70s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, the breezy southwest flow aloft will bring some orographic lift into our higher terrain, while easterly upslope over the plains will help enhance precipitation chances along the mountains/plains interface. Our severe chances will be largely dependent on stability, which the cooler temperatures and morning cloud cover may work against. Current expectations are for showers to initiate over the higher terrain and parts of the eastern plains, with a few rumbles of thunder, with any thunderstorms that do form likely staying sub-severe. Precipitation chances persist into Thursday as temperatures increase into the high-80s, low-90s. This will give us some better instability, though with mid-level flow weakening and becoming a bit more disorganized, shear may be a limiting factor in thunderstorm longevity. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon hours, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Friday Onwards... As we move into late week and into the weekend, southwesterly flow aloft will continue as some moisture from the Gulf is advected into our area. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across both the mountains and plains through the rest of this forecast period. High temperatures will increase, climbing back into the 90s over most of the eastern plains. Additionally, an embedded upper wave will be passing through the flow overhead, leading to enhanced lift Friday afternoon and evening and higher thunderstorm chances. Current model guidance shows CAPE near or under 1000 J/kg with 30+ knots of bulk shear across the eastern plains by evening. These wet and unsettled conditions will last until close to the end of the weekend, when models hint at a new upper-level ridge starting to build in over our region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites this forecast period. Southerly winds are quickly increasing at all sites and expect that to continue through the afternoon hours. These winds will diminish this evening, with an expected front later tonight into early Tuesday morning shifting the winds to a northeast to east direction at COS and PUB. VFR conditions and dry weather will continue even with FROPA. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>237. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ