784
FXUS65 KPUB 232058
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and hot tomorrow! Take extra precautions to avoid
  being outdoors for long periods and stay hydrated! Heat
  advisories in effect for El Paso, Pueblo, and eastern Fremont
  counties.

- Isolated thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon over the
  higher terrain and along the CO/NM border. Hail up to half
  inch and gusty outflow winds reaching 50 mph will be possible
  with some of the stronger storms.

- Hot temperatures continue Tuesday with a gradual cooling
  through the rest of the work week.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue Tuesday,
  with increasing coverage and intensity of storms through the
  end the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Detailed discussion:

Tonight...

Any remaining showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern plains
later this evening will continue to move east and eventually out of
the CWA. There could still be an isolated shower or storm over the
higher terrain, although everything should be coming to an end
shortly after sunset. Skies will continue to clear with temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 60s across the plains, and generally
in the 40s and 50s for high country.

Tomorrow...

Upper level ridge is going to continue to strengthen and move over
the region, which will allow for very hot conditions, especially
across the lower Arkansas River Valley, where most locations will
exceed 100 degrees. Highs will also be hot enough to result in
Category 3 heat indices for most of El Paso, Pueblo, and eastern
Fremont counties and for this reason there is a Heat Advisory in
place for these counties between Noon until 6 PM. Be sure to check
on elderly people, limit duration of time outdoors and strenuous
activities...and always make sure to stay hydrated! In addition to
the heat will be the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms over the
higher terrain as mid-level subtropical moisture is advected up from
the southwest and orographic lift initiates convection. There is
also a low probability (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms over
the far eastern plains as a weak upper level wave embedded in the
trough to the north scoots on by during the mid part of the day.
Otherwise, it will be mostly dry for the plains, with only a storm
or two possible again over the far southeastern plains coming off
the Raton Ridge. There is not a lot of instability, with only
minimal CAPE and shear expected to be over the region. Still, there
are still going to be favorable lapse rates, as well as shear
exceeding 40 kts over some areas of the ContDvd which may allow for
a stronger storm to develop. If this does occur, there may be hail
up to a half an inch and gusty outflow winds approaching 50 mph.
-Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Monday night-Tuesday night...Modest west to northwest flow aloft
remains progged across the region through Tuesday, with a large upper
high centered near the Four Corners region as an embedded short wave
translates through the stronger flow aloft across the Northern Tier.
Latest model data continues to indicate the best available moisture
across the Desert SW and Southern Great Basin, with some moisture
pushing into Western Colorado through the afternoon, supporting
isolated to scattered showers/storms across over and near the higher
terrain. With proximity to the upper high and progged H7 temps of
16C-20C, should see another hot day on Tuesday, with highs in
the mid 90s to around 105F across the plains, which could lead to
another heat advisory across portions the southeast Colorado.
Temperatures across the higher terrain will also be above seasonal
levels in the 70s and 80s, save for 50s and 60s at the peaks.

Moisture increases from Wednesday through Friday as another influx
of subtropical moisture works its way northward with the upper high.
This will bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms to the region
with better chances for some measurable rainfall amounts. A weak
front remains progged to push across the eastern Plains on Wednesday,
with the expected increase in afternoon convection and cloud cover
allowing for slightly cooler temperatures through the middle of next
week. A  stronger front looks to move across the region on Friday
bringing cooler temperatures and better chances for showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS,
KPUB) with too low of confidence of convection to be in the
vicinity to put in the TAFs. If there is VCSH/VCTS, it could
cause for there to be gusty outflow winds resulting in periodic
windshifts and increased wind speeds at any of the terminals,
otherwise winds will be primarily light (less than 10 kts) and
diurnally influenced at all terminals.  -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD