834
FXUS65 KPUB 232031
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
231 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm again on Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather through the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Currently, some shallow convective cloudiness building up over
the mountains today, though only lightning strike as of 2 pm has
been in nrn NM. Could still see a very isolated storm over the
San Juans late this afternoon, though activity will quickly end
early this evening, and won`t carry any pops in the tonight
period of the forecast. Temps have bounced back into the 60s/70s
at lower elevations today, and have started to see a couple
mesonet sites in the low 80s around Pueblo at mid-afternoon.

Overnight, skies will quickly clear by late evening, with
seasonably cool min temps at most locations. Some patchy frost
again likely around Alamosa and across most high mountain
valleys, with NBM guidance again looking several degf too warm
in the San Luis/Upper Rio Grande Valleys. On the plains, weak
cold front will drop south through the area shortly before
sunrise, stirring up some briefly gusty north winds along and
east of I-25 into mid-morning Tue.

On Tuesday, air mass will continue to dry out as upper level
high expands from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a
result, not expecting any afternoon convection, and will run
with a dry forecast all locations. Despite the cold front, max
temps Tue will change little from Monday`s readings, as mid-
level warming spreads across the area in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Deep upper low/trough will exit well to the east at the start
of the period, while upper ridging continues across the region.
This ridge looks to be a dominant feature over the region
through much of the work week, with dry weather and above normal
temperatures expected through this time frame. Will see energy
pass to the north and even the previously mentioned upper low
meander back west by late in the work week, however, both don`t
look to bring any real big changes to the overall pattern. A
similar trend is appearing likely through the weekend into early
next, with once again, drier weather and above normal
temperatures persisting into the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites
this forecast period. A few showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm are possible across the southwest mountains,
however, they will remain over the higher terrain this
afternoon. Winds will be diurnally driven this afternoon into
the evening time frame, but do expect a wind shift to the north
for COS and PUB late this evening as a trough/boundary moves
south across the plains. By early Tuesday morning, flow aloft
increases and given this trend, anticipate northerly gusts to
be in place Tuesday morning through the end of the forecast
period. Should see a diminishing trend closer to 18z, but will
let later forecasts address the duration of the strongest gusts
during the end of the forecast period or the middle part of
Tuesday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ