315
FXUS62 KRAH 160620
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain pinned south of central North
Carolina through tonight then pivot up across western North Carolina
through Sunday. High pressure will extend into the region from the
Atlantic through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Sunday...

Sfc analysis early this morning depicted a fading sea breeze
stretched across the central Piedmont/Sandhills.  Further south, a
stalled front was evident along the NC coast, extending southwest
into southern SC.  Aloft, the anomalous mid-level ridge continues to
extend along the eastern seaboard.

Overall, today should be pretty similar to yesterday, mostly dry and
hot.  While low-level flow will remain primarily esely today, the
deepest moisture will pool along the Foothills/Mountains to our
south and west. This area should be the main focus for convection
today (and along the front in south central SC). However, can`t rule
out a stray shower/storm moving into the southern Piedmont later
this afternoon. Highs today will max out in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s will persist tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Sunday...

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify up into the northeast US
on Sunday.  This will promote yet another hot and dry day for
central NC. Low-level esely flow will persist, but the deeper
moisture/instability axis will shift further northwest into the TN
Valley on Monday. Most afternoon convection will follow suit, as
central NC remains primarily dry.  Highs will once again reach the
lower 90s. Dew points will struggle to mix out a bit more compared
to Sunday, and thus expect a bit more uncomfortable sensible
weather.  While heat indices will stay well below advisory criteria,
given the persistent hot temperatures we`ve experienced recently,
it`s advised to practice heat safety including hydrating and taking
frequent breaks in shady areas if participating in outdoor
activities.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

...Hot and dry next week with increasing temperatures and minimal
rain chances...

The forecast for much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather
with increasingly warm temperatures. An anomalously strong H5 ridge
(with heights around 592-594dm) will center itself over NC on Monday
and remain virtually stationary through the middle of the week. At
the surface, high pressure off the coast will promote a prolonged
period of southeasterly winds through Wednesday. While there will be
some moisture on the periphery of the ridge, it`s likely to pool
against the mountains to our west with any potential for showers or
storms confined to areas of the far western Piedmont. Elsewhere,
it`ll be a challenge to get much more than high clouds across the
area given strong subsidence throughout the column. Temperatures for
the first half of the week should range from the low to mid 90s,
with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Thursday the ridge will strengthen further and begin to shift
northward. By late week, 500mb heights are forecast to approach 596-
597dm which would be near record values at KGSO for mid June. At the
surface, this will translate to even warmer temperatures with late
week highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Return flow from the
ridge will serve to advect additional moisture into the area and
precip chances will increase, but only slightly. Strong subsidence
aloft will likely limit the potential for any widespread/beneficial
precipitation across the area but afternoon pulse-type showers could
potentially become more common by next weekend. Grand ensemble still
only suggesting 10-15 percent PoPs late in the week which is
certainly higher than earlier in the week, but still below climo. Of
note: there are some 12Z ensemble members that suggest a subtropical
plume of moisture and troughing will enter the area late in the week
but exactly how that evolves and what (if any) forcing mechanism
comes into play is still very uncertain.

In terms of sensible weather impacts next week, increasing
temperatures could be problematic for individuals that are sensitive
to heat. While Heat Index values will generally stay out of the
triple digits through next Saturday (thanks in large part to
dewpoints in the 60s vs the 70s), other heat tools such as Wet Bulb
Globe Temperature (which takes into account full exposure to the sun
along with wind speeds and humidity) and HeatRisk (which examines
temperatures relative to climatology along with CDC data) suggest
next weekend`s conditions could warrant the first heat-related
headlines of the year for portions of central NC. However, the
chance of showers and storms and associated cloud cover could keep
conditions below dangerous values, adding to the uncertainty of next
weekend`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period under dry
high pressure. A stray mountain shower could move into the Triad
region early this morning, but confidence is too low to include in
the KINT/KGSO TAFs. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely pool across
the foothills/mountains later this morning. It`s not quite clear
whether some of these lower ceilings will trickle over KINT/KGSO,
however there is enough guidance suggesting they will warranting a
continued TEMPO group at both sites between ~09 and 12Z.  Any
lingering stratus will lift through mid morning. Expect dry VFR
conditions to then prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett/Kren
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Luchetti