806
FXUS62 KRAH 020552
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will move across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Monday...

Latest surface analysis shows a 1024 mb area of high pressure
centered over Lake Huron with a large area of surface dew points in
the 40s extending from western NY west across the Great Lakes
and into WI. A northeast low level flow continues across the
mid- Atlantic and Carolinas this evening with winds relaxing a
bit from this afternoon. Dew points generally range in the
lower to mid 50s across much of central NC with some lower 60s
noted across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A northwest flow
aloft is noted across the region as a mid and upper level ridge
builds across the lower MS Valley. A few disturbances in the
flow aloft including a well defined vort max across western
KY/TN will spread some high clouds across the western Carolinas
overnight. Some guidance hints also at some low level moisture
in the 3-7kft layer may work its way north late tonight into the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain but this scenario seems a
little too aggressive and thing most of the clouds will hold to
our south. Otherwise, expect fair weather with mainly clear
skies. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with a few of the typically colder spots near Roxboro, Henderson
and Sanford flirting with some mid 50s. These temperatures are
about 5 to 9 degrees below average. -Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday..

Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC
from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light
northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s
for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points
will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface
high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will
become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear
with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the TN Valley and Deep
South on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, high
pressure centered just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast on
Wednesday morning will shift farther east, shifting the low-level
flow to a S/SE direction. This will continue a warming trend, but
conditions still won`t be too oppressive with near-normal highs in
the upper-80s to lower-90s, as dew points mix out to the upper-50s
to lower-60s in the afternoon. This pattern of ridging and
subsidence will also support one last day of no precipitation
chances. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper-60s to lower-70s.

The mid-level anticyclone will gradually break down and shift
southeast away from our region during the remainder of the extended
period as a series of shortwaves moves across the northern tier of
the US and SE Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of
us, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring in higher PW
values exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Monday. The most
potent shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches
the Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out
before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become
south/southwesterly ahead of the front and as high pressure
continues to push farther east near Bermuda. This will increase dew
points into the upper-60s to mid-70s. With better moisture and
instability in place along with a lee trough setting up, shower and
storm chances will return each afternoon and evening, first over the
Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through Monday. The
greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are in the NW on
Friday and Saturday, shifting to the SE on Sunday and Monday. The
storms look to be more of a pulse variety given the lack of shear,
so widespread severe weather is not expected.

The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which
are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from
Thursday through Saturday. Heat indices in the low-100s will be
possible on Thursday, and basic heat precautions should still be
taken especially given the Independence Day holiday with a lot of
people outdoors. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most
humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected
from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely
be needed on these days. A slight moderation is expected on Sunday
and Monday, but highs will still be in the lower-to-mid-90s with
little to no relief from the humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

The presence and influence of Canadian high pressure over the Middle
Atlantic will favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through at least the
next couple of days. Nely surface winds around the high may result
in a few gusts into the teens to near 20 kts with diurnal heating
this morning mainly at FAY, with light nely to ely winds
expected otherwise and elsewhere.

Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC
Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri
through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...MWS