Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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575 FXUS62 KRAH 131806 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 206 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will continue to drift east and move off the mid-Atlantic coast. An area of low pressure will move off the east coast of Florida this evening and then lift northeast off the mid- Atlantic coast through late Friday. A cold front will then slide southward into the area Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 PM Thursday... As the surface high slips offshore, associated E-SELY low level flow into the area will lead to warming temps and building humidity levels. Expect another round of scattered to occasionally broken afternoon stratocumulus as highs today range from mid 80s north, upper 80s central area, to around 90 across the southern, which is about 1 to 4 degrees above average. Otherwise, the total air column across central NC remains rather dry with below PW values well below normal. This dry air coupled with the lingering mid level cap will squash any weak diurnally driven lift and showers that tries to develop over interior NC. The mid and high clouds associated with the extremely weak shortwave moving through the SE US and developing offshore coastal low will pass east of the area this evening , leaving behind mostly clear skies. However, probabilistic guidance indicates a low end chance for some fog/stratus across the far eastern/coastal plain counties towards sunrise. Lows similar to this past morning, ranging from lower 60s north, to mid/upper 60s central and southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 153 PM Thursday... Although trending a degree or two cooler, Friday is still expected to be warm across the region. Record temperatures should not be an issue as highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, where the daily high temperature record at GSO is 98, 97 at RDU, and 100 at FAY. Everyone should take cation when working outside Friday and stay hydrated. While the weak high pressure will be shifting northeast and offshore, the strengthening low pressure system off the coast is expected to stay offshore and move NE through Saturday morning. Although the majority of the precipitation will stay offshore, rip currents could still be a hazard. While the low is moving along the coast, a cold front is expected to move across the region beginning Friday afternoon and reaching the coast by Saturday morning. While most ensembles shows the front to be dry, a few outlines do show an isolated shower or storm develop Friday afternoon over the Triad and Triangle regions. While CAPE is expected to be less than 100 J/kg, Lapse rates will also be unimpressive. Any shower that does develop is expected to pass quickly. Have kept a 15-20% chance PoP in portions of the Northern Piedmont as Hi-Res models suggest that is where the best chance (if any) for showers and storms to pop up. Otherwise, as the front passes the region Saturday morning lows will be muggy in in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... The leading edge of a surface cold front will be working through central NC Sat morning and is forecast to be draped across the southern/central Coastal Plain into the Sandhills by 12z Sat. This boundary will mark the delineation between continued warm/moist airmass to the south and gradual theta-e drop to the north. The timing of the front still is uncertain with the slowest guidance (NAM and NAM3km) keeps the front in the forecast area through the early afternoon. Available Hi-Res guidance suggest a moderately unstable (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly sheared (15-20 kts of 0- 6km shear) environment could be in place south of this front. If this scenario does develop, the best coverage of showers/storms would be mostly confined to the southern Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills where proximity to the front and potential seabreeze collision would be most probable. Storm motions will by towards the ESE to SE so any storms the develop should quickly move away from the forecast area. Temperatures will be tricky and tied to the cold fropa, but current forecast suggest mid 80s (N) to low 90s (S). An anomalous mid/upper level anticyclone will drift from Lower MS Valley over central NC Sun through Tues before strengthening further as it shifts over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Thursday. Warm and dry mid-level temperatures and surface high pressure ridging into the area from the northeast will suppress convection over much of the forecast area. Only chances will likely be confined to upslope induced convection over western NC that may leak into the western Piedmont Sun with NW steering flow. Deep layer flow shifts out of the east Tues onward and keeping upslope flow pinned to the NC mountains. Temperatures through the remainder of the extended will be fairly consistent in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s for highs and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Thursday... Dry VFR conditions are expected through the period. The possible exception could be at KRWI, where probabilistic guidance indicates a very low end chance for some fog/stratus across the far eastern/coastal plain counties towards sunrise Friday morning. Winds will remain light through the period. Outlook: Isolated showers are possible late Friday as a moisture starved cold front moves through the region. Otherwise, generally dry weather is e expected. Some patchy late night/early morning fog or stratus is possible across mainly southern and eastern locations into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...CBL/BLAES