745
FXUS61 KRLX 241740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some storms could be capable of
damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

A beautiful afternoon is underway for much of the forecast area to
kick start the Memorial Day weekend. This is with the help of
mid-level ridging aloft nudging shortwave energy eastward for
areas east of the mountains. However, radar trends at the time
of writing still have some pop up activity in our northeast
zones of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties sprouting along a
stationary front draped along our northern periphery. Outside of
a quick lightning burst in isolated convection, severe weather
is not anticipated today for our forecast area.

Radar trends quickly quiet down after sunset, with afternoon
cumulus fields also fading away. In a national perspective,
there is a low pressure system off to our west that will travel
across the country over the next several days, yielding
increasing moisture along onshore flow as our forecast area sits
within the warm-sector of this approaching disturbance.
Radiational cooling, coupled with light low level flow, may
promote areas of fog Saturday morning as a result of increased
moisture in the area.

After daybreak, fog erosion will branch out into another
afternoon cumulus field for Saturday. Temperatures warm up a few
more degrees into the mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s
for the higher terrain, and growing muggier with the plethora of
moisture overhead. Aforementioned frontal boundary lazily
hanging over the area will once again promote isolated showers
and storms along the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.

By this point in the period, we`ll also have our eyes on a line
of convection pressing through the Ohio Valley that could
encroach on the western flank of the area late in the afternoon
and evening. A slightly better emphasis on strong to severe
thunderstorms will be placed on Saturday, which could be
accompanied by damaging wind gusts, hail, and/or locally heavy
downpours. This could yield localized flash flooding concerns,
especially in the event of training convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM Friday...

Sunday will once again bring another potential for severe weather
and flooding. A potent 500-mb shortwave will be approaching from the
west Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front slowly lifts north
from northern West Virginia into eastern Ohio and southwest
Pennsylvania. Models are showing anywhere from 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear over portions of West Virginia, southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky, which is sufficient to support organized
convection. However, models still disagree on the amount of
destabilization over our region. The best instability will likely be
over Kentucky and southern Ohio, where models are predicting
anywhere from 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening.

The SPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk of severe
weather Sunday, with slight and enhanced risks farther to our west
across central Kentucky. All modes of severe weather will be
possible, but the most likely threat will be damaging wind gusts as
a potential QLCS develops ahead of the cold front in Indiana and
southern Illinois in the afternoon and pushes eastward. The most
likely timing for our region appears to be late Sunday and into
Sunday night, but we still have low confidence at this time.
Flooding will also be a concern with models showing PWATs anywhere
from 1.5-2.0 inches. Saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall
won`t help the flooding threat, either.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 139 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday as a cold front finally
passes through from the west. The most likely timing of rain Monday
seems to be in the morning and into the early afternoon ahead of a
500-mb shortwave. There should be some drying by the late afternoon
and into the evening as most of the forcing exits to the east.

For the rest of the week, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
may linger on Tuesday and Wednesday as several rounds of energy
pivot around upper-level low pressure. The lower heights aloft will
translate to much cooler weather compared to what we have seen
recently. High temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to 70s
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

Low hanging cumulus field this afternoon of around 25-50 kft AGL
remains present around the area, with pop up showers sprouting
intermittently across north-central and northeast West Virginia.
This is in response to a stationary frontal boundary draped over
the area, promoting clouds and light and variable flow, with
just enough moisture to create occasional precipitation. Only
site carrying VCTS this afternoon will be KEKN, where radar
trends depict the closest airfield to activity at the time of
writing.

Ceilings will gradually rise through the afternoon and evening
as cumulus fades, returning all sites to VFR conditions.
However, with surface high pressure nearby tonight, low level
flow will generally be calm enough to encourage fog production
across the higher terrain and the WV foothills, especially in
areas that receive rain today. Currently only have confidence
that KEKN and KCKB could see fog Saturday morning, but fog could
ooze as far west as KCRW before lifting after sunrise.

Saturday will feature generally quiet conditions to begin the
day, but diurnally driven showers and storms will return to the
forecast for the afternoon. Winds remain light and variable
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High, depending on radar trends.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may miss any terminal
directly, but still be in the vicinity.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK