480
FXUS61 KRLX 241755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 152 PM Tuesday...

A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will
bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley
and WV through tonight. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over WV
will serve as a focus for additional convection tonight. Hi-res models
suggest next round of showers and storms lifting north across
southern WV and SW VA this evening affecting mainly the eastern
half of the area, along and near the mountains. Another round is
forecasted to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/KY/WV) and
extreme southern WV during the predawn hours Wednesday morning.
Localized heavy downpours will be possible with the heavier
storms. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall exist for the
entire area through tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist for portions of WV,
northeast KY and southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will
be damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

While the area remains under the warm sector of a dissipating
surface low pressure system, dewpoints will remain elevated. Expect
tonight`s temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s
across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid
50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains.

Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep
warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands,
into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher
elevations of our northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

An upper level disturbance will be the centerpiece for the
extended forecast as it continues to produce daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. This nearly stacked system will be
parked over the western Ohio Valley at the start of the period,
and will usher in moisture along southwesterly flow on its
eastern flank up into Central Appalachia. At the surface, a
cold front will be stalled overhead with ripples of shortwave
activity prolonging at least a slight chance for rain from
Wednesday into Thursday.

A resurgence of moisture and lift will move northward on
Thursday night as Tropical Cyclone Nine makes landfall along the
Florida Panhandle and conjoins to the upper level low. This
will enhance shower and thunderstorm potential for the second
half of the work week. While convective parameters will be
lackluster with this newly enriched disturbance, rainfall
accumulation totals will rise once again starting late Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

Widespread potential for much needed rain tracks northward on
Friday as the remnants of what is currently Tropical Cyclone
Nine feeds into the upper level disturbance that remains stalled
over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. 00z global model suite
shows decent agreement with the center of the surface low
remaining parked over Kentucky for a decent majority of the
weekend.

While POPs start off relatively higher on Friday as the tropical
system tracks northward (50 to 70%), shower activity will
gradually wane as the surface low continues to spin and fail to
make any headway to the east. This will ultimately rain itself
dry before its upper level support system finally gets nudged to
the east by ridging moving into the Desert Southwest. Showers
and storms will grow more isolated to scattered as the
disturbance shifts over the forecast area later in the weekend,
but hopefully we can squeeze out some beneficial rainfall totals
to help put a dent in the drought still present across the
region. Active weather extends into the start of next week as
this slow moving system retains residency nearby on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 136 PM Tuesday...

An elongated line of convection passed east of CRW to affect CKB
and BKW with brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong
thunderstorms at the moment of writing. Wind gusts up to 45
knots can be expected with the stronger storms. Terminals west
of the line, will experience post heavy rain MVFR conditions
under light stratiformed rain for few hours.

Hi-res CAMs indicate a second batch of showers and thunderstorms
developing across northeast KY, and then moving northeast across
our area later this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the stronger storms.
A lull in rainfall activity may occur overnight, allowing for
MVFR/IFR low stratus to develop affecting most terminals 08Z
through at least 13Z.

Guidance suggests another batch of convection expected to
arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/WV/KY) overnight by 10Z and
move east northeast to affect the area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Dense fog along with mountain obscuration
may develop overnight into Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ