Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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789 FXUS61 KRLX 240526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM Monday... Updated PoPs to keep accurate timing and location of showers and thunderstorms. Currently seeing some thunderstorms across the southern coalfields and mountains of WV and VA with a considerable amount of lightning. These storms are moving from southwest to northeast ahead of a stalling, weak cold front. Expecting these taper off some over the next few hours, but another round is expected to move in early tomorrow morning before sunrise, with an afternoon round expected. Storms could be strong to severe in the afternoon, though the amount of showers that move through early in the morning will determine how the afternoon severe potential will stack up tomorrow. There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather across most of the area, with a slight risk across portions of our KY counties, southern coalfields of WV, Buchanan and Dickenson counties in SWVA. As of 140 PM Monday... Frontal boundary snaking across parts of the area will lift north tonight as a warm front as low pressure across the lower MS Valley tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon, most notably across the mountains where a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some of the model solutions are quick to bring in shower/thunder chances late tonight from the west as the aforementioned frontal boundary lingers off to the west. Given the developing southeast flow overnight, I tended to favor the drier solution for the area. Expect low stratus and river valley fog to form with dense fog possible should the sky remain mostly cloud free. This is a low confidence forecast all things considered. Upper trof across the upper Midwest will energize this boundary on Tuesday. Upper level jet dynamics combined with surface lift along and ahead of the front should give us the best chances for widespread shower thunderstorm activity we`ve had in recent memory. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms should some surface heating be realized, most notably across western zones. This would be dependent on the extent of any morning showers. In addition, some southwest to northeast training of activity is possible which would give some localized rainfall amounts. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday... Period begins with deep southwesterly flow across the area, with an upper low/trough axis just to our west. Shortwaves moving through the flow early Wednesday will keep conditions unsettled across the area. However, the upper low will gradually move south and deepen through the day Wednesday into Thursday, with some of the moisture and lift associated with it remaining south and west of our area, with a decrease in shower activity for us. Although not overly warm during the period, conditions will remain muggy, particularly for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1220 PM Monday... Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region, and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low, particularly across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Even with shower and storm activity around the area the sites should get to endure VFR for the most part. Have some stratocu and mid clouds for the time being then by the late morning chances for additional shower and especially storm potential will be on the table. Lower Cu decks will likely be the culprit today with the potential for storms through the afternoon, however thinking the cloud decks should stay in the VFR range or at least really close to the MVFR/VFR threshold. Outside a temporary reduced VIS under a shower the predominant VIS should stay unrestricted. Clouds may lift slightly by the early evening then then more rain expected in the late afternoon and then a lull by the evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/24/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M M M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L M L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...30/LTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JZ