768
FXUS61 KRLX 250624
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through today.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

The focus today will be on when thunderstorms start to
infiltrate the area. The current thinking is that the beginning
of the morning should be quiet, but things will start to ramp up
with the instability on the rise and along with abundant wind
shear which will allow for thunderstorm activity to take place
through the early to mid/late afternoon.

Then thunderstorm potential should wane until at least tonight
where storms could continue to ignite along the frontal boundary
that is quasi-stationary to our west. A closed upper low will
move into the region and setup along the boundary and help
support the boundary and consequently support more shower and
storm activity by introducing more energy and vorticity into the
equation.

Not seeing any opportunity for breaks in cloud coverage to
support more instability equating to stronger thunderstorms but
one cannot rule that out. However, the forecast keeps us under
overcast skies with showers on and off throughout the daytime,
therefore temperatures will only reach seasonable today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low
continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
taking bulk of moisture south and west with it. Precipitation, and
winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Ample moisture, with PW values
progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to
provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the
mountains from upslope effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather will continue in the extended period as the upper
low continues to spread moisture northward into the area, with
increasing chances for precipitation as we head into next week and
the low gradually lifts northeast, eventually opening into a wave as
it moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

The sites that are forecast to fog this morning are already
getting into lower CIGs such as BKW who is BKN008 currently
with gusting to 20KT. Have EKN/CRW getting fogged in as well but
their CIGs/VIS have not started to drop. Those sites will fight
off the fog by 13/14Z, then endure some borderline MVFR/VFR
CIGs through the afternoon with the possibility of seeing some
thunderstorms. The rest of the sites will continue to lower in
height getting into MVFR for the afternoon with the chance of
some thunderstorm activity. By evening thunderstorm potential
will wane and those borderline CIGs will still be around until
fog starts to impact most sites for the overnight. The frontal
boundary to our west is quasi-stationary, therefore the
possibility of shower activity overnight will exist going into
tomorrow morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low
stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 09/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ