Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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841 FXUS61 KRLX 211712 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 112 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues into the weekend courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night into Monday, bringing showers and storms to the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 PM Friday... Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through Saturday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and storms during peak heating hours. Showers and storms this afternoon/evening will mainly fire up along the mountains, and across the north as a weak boundary sags south towards the area. Severe is not anticipated at this time, but storms will be slow to move with brief heavy downpours. Bulk of storms should dissipate this evening with loss of heating, but there could still be an isolated shower or storm overnight from any passing weak wave. Otherwise, hot again on Saturday, with additional showers and storms particularly during peak heating hours. Fog possible again in favored river valleys Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... The weekend remains hot and humid as a strong H597 high pressure center and stout upper-level ridge remains over the Southern CONUS and most of Mid-Atlantic CONUS. Some of the hottest temperatures of the week look to manifest Saturday with the lowlands seeing highs in the mid to upper 90s; 80s and lower 90s for most locations in the mountains. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 during peak heating which will make for some oppressive heat indices. Heat Advisory goes until 8 PM Saturday to cover heat indices around 100 degrees for the hottest locations in the lowlands. Sunday looks hot and humid as well, though temperatures will likely be less hot by 3-6 degrees, enough to hold off on extending the heat advisory into Sunday. This looks to be caused by neutral flow moving in aloft as the previously mentioned high pressure recedes, allowing some upper-level cloud cover to move in as a result. A quick-hitting cold front will approach from the midwest by Sunday afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on our door by afternoon. Clouds will gradually thicken as a result and chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by Sunday night as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be possible as models project precipitable water values between 1.50" and 2.00". Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the heaviest downpours, but not overly concerned with this as of right now due to how dry the area has been. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall will most likely be hoisted for our area nonetheless. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Cold front will bring a bit of a cool down on Monday, but hazard to call this a cool down as temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 80s and low 90s for the lowlands, which is still above normal. Chances remain for some upslope rain showers or an isolated thunderstorms in the mountains Monday afternoon. The heat kicks up again for Tuesday and Wednesday with a slight ridge forming. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to mid 90s once again for the lowlands both of these days; 70s to upper 80s in the mountains. Models show some shortwaves that may move through the ridge Tuesday, but conditions look to be mostly dry until another cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon, reintroducing chances for some showers or thunderstorms into Wednesday night. Finally seeing temperatures return closer to normal for Thursday and Friday behind this cold front. Expecting highs in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands; 70s and low 80s in the mountains, with the highest elevations in our coverage area (i.e. Snowshoe and Kumbrabow) sitting in the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM Friday... Isolated showers and storms through 02Z across the higher terrain and possibly SE Ohio and north central WV, with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR area wide with light surface winds, except for patchy MVFR/IFR or worse valley fog generally 08-12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and density of valley fog Saturday morning may differ from forecast. More coverage of storms may occur this afternoon than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...RPY