706
FXUS61 KRLX 241621
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1221 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms tapering off as a cold front crosses
this morning. More seasonable air and drier weather today.
Another cold front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1025 AM Monday...

A few showers are continuing to develop over the northeast
mountains this morning. Have freshened up PoPs to reflect the
longer duration of these showers.

As of 605 AM Monday...

Updated temperatures and PoPs to match current obs and radar.
Showers have largely dissipated minus a few across Raleigh and
Fayette counties. Low clouds will remain across the mountain
through a portion of the morning, but elsewhere going to see
lifting and scattering as the morning goes on.

As of 230 AM Monday...

A few showers and thunderstorms remain across the mountains
this morning as a cold front moves across the area. This
activity is expected to gradually diminish through the morning.
Low clouds and fog will likely form across the mountains and
western foothills as showers and storms taper off, but there
should be enough low-level flow to keep fog and low cloud
formation limited elsewhere. Low temperatures this morning will
drop into the 60s for most locations (upper 50s for the highest
elevations) as cooler air arrives with the frontal passage.

High pressure moves in behind the cold front to keep the area
dry today. A few low clouds may remain in the mountains through
the morning, but otherwise skies will lift and scatter through
the morning with mixing. Flow shifts northwest today allowing
for less hot and more seasonable temperatures compared to the
sweltering days we have had. High temperatures for the lowlands
will range between 78 and 86 degrees; the mountains staying in
the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. These temperature ranges
are around normal to slightly below for this time of year.

Low temperatures tonight into early Tuesday look to be a few
degrees below normal as high pressure moves overhead and flow
shifts northeasterly, gradually slacking off as the region
decouples. Upper 50s and low 60s forecasted for the lowlands;
mostly 50s expected in the mountains. Patchy to dense river
valley fog formation looks like a possibility as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather on Tuesday,
with temperatures climbing back above normal for this time of
year.

A cold front and an upper level trough will then bring showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Some models are indicating at
least 2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Models do have differences on prefrontal energy and
precipitation. The cold front should push through late Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Some models indicate enough remaining
moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
mountains on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will return
again for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

High pressure will build into the area for Friday, with mainly dry,
but warmer conditions as upper heights build and southerly flow
increases out ahead of the next system. Showers and storms will
increase across the area by late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
front associated with this system, moving east across Canada,
affects the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM Monday...

A few showers remain across the eastern mountains, but largely
seeing this activity diminishing with cold front moving through. Low
stratus formed this morning across the mountains, but MVFR is
only being reported at BKW, with the other sites suggesting
improvement with CIGs lifting and scattering behind the front.
Otherwise, VFR will take over with the trend of CIGs gradually
lifting and improving this morning into early afternoon.

Winds will be WNW and light ahead and with FROPA, becoming
light and NW`rly behind the front. Direction will shift out of
the NE this evening into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers ending and improvement to
VFR may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in fog early Tuesday morning. Brief
IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...JLB/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC