295
FXUS61 KRLX 250703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week
in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and
a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

The focus today will be on when thunderstorms start to
infiltrate the area. The current thinking is that the beginning
of the morning should be quiet, but things will start to ramp up
with the instability on the rise and along with abundant wind
shear which will allow for thunderstorm activity to take place
through the early to mid/late afternoon.

Then thunderstorm potential should wane until at least tonight
where storms could continue to ignite along the frontal boundary
that is quasi-stationary to our west. A closed upper low will
move into the region and setup along the boundary and help
support the boundary and consequently support more shower and
storm activity by introducing more energy and vorticity into the
equation.

Not seeing any opportunity for breaks in cloud coverage to
support more instability equating to stronger thunderstorms but
one cannot rule that out. However, the forecast keeps us under
overcast skies with showers on and off throughout the daytime,
therefore temperatures will only reach seasonable today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Shower and storm chances continue to peruse the area on Thursday
as moisture streams up the Appalachian mountains. This is in
conglomeration of an upper level low parked to our west and
what is forecast to become Hurricane Helene making landfall
along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Best chances for
precipitation will be south of the I-64 corridor during the day
Thursday, but is expected to stretch farther north on Friday as
Helene lifts up through the Mississippi Valley and becomes
absorbed by the upper level low.

Rain potential splits over the area late Friday night as
Helene`s remnants becomes fully ingested by the other nearby
disturbance. Precipitation becomes more contained to the center
of circulation, progged to be closer to western Kentucky during
this time. A tail of moisture stemmed along a cold front will
shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night, with this
concentration of showers venturing eastward away from the area.
This places the CWA in a bit of a rain shadow and limiting
shower and storm chances late Friday night and into the weekend.

Latest projected storm total accumulation paints two to three
inches across the southern coalfields and up the mountains and
into parts of the central lowlands with this event. North of
I-64, a crestfallen forecast of only a half an inch to an inch
of rain is expected to fall from Wednesday through Friday in the
midst of our historic drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Low end POPs kick off the weekend as the newly enhanced Ohio
Valley disturbance remains fairly stationary to our west. This
will limit much in the way of showers and storms venturing into
the forecast area. The surface low will eventually be nudged
eastward late in the weekend into Monday by advancing high
pressure out west. Most of the nutritious moisture fueled by the
remnants of Helene will have already fallen over areas west of
Central Appalachia, leaving behind only lackluster rainfall
accumulations as the system travels overhead for the start of
next week.

After a weak cold front slips through around midweek, high
pressure looks to take control of the area again late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

The sites that are forecast to fog this morning are already
getting into lower CIGs such as BKW who is BKN008 currently
with gusting to 20KT. Have EKN/CRW getting fogged in as well but
their CIGs/VIS have not started to drop. Those sites will fight
off the fog by 13/14Z, then endure some borderline MVFR/VFR
CIGs through the afternoon with the possibility of seeing some
thunderstorms. The rest of the sites will continue to lower in
height getting into MVFR for the afternoon with the chance of
some thunderstorm activity. By evening thunderstorm potential
will wane and those borderline CIGs will still be around until
fog starts to impact most sites for the overnight. The frontal
boundary to our west is quasi-stationary, therefore the
possibility of shower activity overnight will exist going into
tomorrow morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low
stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ