599
FXUS61 KRLX 231620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1220 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms continue today and will prevail
through at least midweek, bringing beneficial rain to the area.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Monday...

Freshened up temperature and sky grids into this afternoon,
otherwise, no changes to the forecast. Frontal boundary draped
over the area will serves as the focus for some afternoon
activity, most notably across the northern lowlands and
mountains. This boundary will briefly lift northwestward tonight
as low pressure across the lower MS Valley lifts northeastward.

As of 330 AM Monday...

A small low pressure system passing by to our north has dropped
down a frontal boundary that is now quasi-stationary across our
area. This feature will promote shower and storm activity
throughout the daytime, especially with sufficient amount of
CAPE ~1500 J/kg and with modest shear to keep the storms going
and moving along. Cloudy skies may take some of that instability
away but the theme is wet weather with a few rumbles of thunder
until the evening when a lull should come into play. This lull
will be short lived as another system directly toward our west
barrels at us in time to promote chances of showers by tonight
across the western and southern borders of the CWA.

With all the expected breaks in cloud coverage and being in the
warm sector kept temperatures slightly above guidance which
equated to low to mid 80`s in the lowlands and low to upper
70`s in the higher elevations except for the peaks and ridges
of the mountains who will endure the 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues to bring beneficial rainfall to the
forecast area during the period in response to a stalled
frontal boundary loiters overhead. Rain will grow more bountiful
Tuesday evening into the overnight period as a nearly stacked
disturbance ventures down from the Midwest. This feature will
place the forecast area on the eastern side of the parent
trough, ushering in waves of moisture and vorticity to enhance
rainfall accumulations. An uptick in instability may also yield
strong to possibly severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but given the uncertainty of antecedent convective
trends during the day to the west, SPC has painted a broad
Marginal Risk for the area for damaging wind potential.

The cold front sails into the area overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, bringing diminishing shower chances across
the western flank of the CWA. The front is progged to get hung
up somewhere in and around Central Appalachia for midweek, which
will maintain unsettled weather through the short term and
beyond into the long term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A
tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region,
and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There
still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and
associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution
would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with
the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in
southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance
for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact
path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the
pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low,
particularly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

A stationary boundary will likely create lower CIGs (MVFR) at
times with periodic showers which may or may not reduce VIS
temporarily. Due to cloud coverage not anticipating a lot of
fog, but EKN will likely develop some IFR at times for this
morning and scatter out by rain showers expected by late
morning/afternoon. Chances of shower activity will remain until
this evening when a lull may take place before more fog and
shower activity ramps up again when the second disturbance
enters from the west. Thunderstorms may become prevalent during
the afternoon hours at least passing by the vicinity of sites
but chances will taper off by the early evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low ceilings and showers/storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...30/JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ