Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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125 FXUS61 KRLX 090141 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 941 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps dry weather this evening. There is a chance of showers or thunderstorms with a cold front Sunday. Mainly dry through the work week with building heat. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM Saturday... Updated sky cover to better reflect current satellite and meso model trends. As of 130 PM Saturday... Seeing mid to high level clouds move through the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a looming disturbance to our west. High pressure to the south will keep the area dry today with warm and comfortable temperatures for most locations. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Winds could be breezy at times this afternoon, particularly across the mountains. A cold front will slowly move through the region Sunday after arriving in the early morning hours. Models continue to suggest a drier passage with this front, and blended guidance only keeps chances for showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, across the mountains and foothills starting early Sunday morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday look to be in the same ball park as today, maybe 1-3 degrees cooler depending on cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 203 PM Saturday... A shortwave moving across the northeast may provide some light/brief shower activity mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold. Continued cool and dry on Tuesday as northerly flow remains in place. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1150 AM Saturday... Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to late week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once again as a cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 PM Saturday... VFR conditions can be expected this evening. A cold front will push through late tonight and Sunday. Expect some MVFR clouds near the cold front. Some restrictions are possible in showers as well. Thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the afternoon in the mountains and southern West Virginia. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front Sunday could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/09/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY