605
FXUS61 KRLX 151702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a bit cooler than yesterday. However, an extended
stretch of hot and dry weather will begin Sunday and last much
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As 0f 1200 PM Saturday...

Sent a quick update to issue an Excessive Heat Watch for NE KY,
SE OH and the WV lowlands starting Monday through Friday. The
combination of increasing moisture and temperatures will produce
heat index values from the mid 90s to the lower 100s each day,
which may result in moderate heat related impacts.

Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 835 AM Saturday...

This morning`s temperatures have been tweaked to account for
latest observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
A comfortably warm day is expected with low humidity.

As of 215 AM Saturday...

Fog has developed and is noted in almost every valley across the
northeastern quadrant of the CWA, and may spread further
southwestward as the night goes on. There was some fog earlier
over SE Ohio and the Mid-Ohio Valley area, but a bit of dry
advection behind the cold front has helped clear that out, and
as of right now it seems unlikely to return. Fog should burn off
for most areas by around 800 AM or so, but could linger a bit
longer in a few valleys.

Behind yesterday`s weak cold front, most of the CWA is forecast
to be a few degrees less hot than yesterday, but still near
normal for mid-June. It will be sunny and dry across the area,
with gentle N-NE`ly breezes. Clear and calm conditions are
expected overnight, with lows ranging from the low 50s in the
highest elevations to the low 60s in some lowland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Heat wave initiates next week.
* Excessive Heat Watch in effect Monday through Friday.

Ample upper level high pressure across the southeastern US Sunday
night will move overhead by Monday, remaining in place through
Tuesday. This system will block any shortwave over our area through
this period.

However, H850 flow turns southwest pumping rich theta-e airmass into
our area. Dewpoints in the mid 60s Sunday night will increase to the
lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggests PWATs above 2
standard deviation from climatology from 1.6 to 2 inches. Mostly
sunny skies will provide the heat needed to destabilize the
atmosphere. Local soundings shows a slender tall CAPE (equilibrium
level about 40kft), and low level mixing signatures Monday afternoon
and evening. Under a high CAPE (+2500 J/Kg) and low deep shear
environment, expect at least isolated strong-slow moving
thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable to produce heavy
rain and strong wind gusts. SPC has the area outlooked just in
general thunderstorms for now. The same environment will persist
into Tuesday, with few slow-moving strong convection during the
afternoon and evening hours possible.

A second weather hazard will be the building heat wave across the
region. Monday will feel hot, with highs in the mid 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s higher elevations. Heat index
will reach the upper 90s, with few spots reaching 100 degrees across
the lowlands, requiring a heat advisory for some areas on Monday.
Since it may be a long stretch of heat through the end of the week,
will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Monday through Friday,
transitioning into advisory or warning depending on weather
conditions. As humidity and heat increases Tuesday, heat index
values exceeding 100 will be more widespread, requiring continuation
or upgrades of heat headlines Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs tying the
records at some locations.

     Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------------
-        Mon, 6/17     |Tue, 6/18     |   Wed, 6/19    |   Thu, 6/20
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 94 / 98 (1944) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 96 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931)
HTS | 95 /100 (1936) | 97 / 98 (1944) | 98 / 98 (1994) | 98 / 100(1931)
CKB | 94 / 96 (1967) | 96 / 96 (1936) | 96 / 96 (1994) | 96 / 94 (1931)
PKB | 95 / 98 (1936) | 97 / 98 (1944) | 97 / 98 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931)
BKW | 88 / 93 (1936) | 90 / 93 (1936) | 90 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 92 (1931)
EKN | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931)
---------------------------------------------------------------------


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week.

High pressure remains in control Wednesday night through the end of
the week, remaining mainly dry and hot. Afternoon convection cannot
be entirely rule out due to increasing moisture and heat. However
confidence is low due to high pressure at the surface and aloft, so
will keep the area dry for now.

Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even
exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 AM Saturday...

After any lingering fog or low stratus burns off in the first
hour of the TAF valid period, we can expect VFR conditions and
gentle N-NE`ly winds today, turning E-SE`ly overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK