887
FXUS61 KRLX 181820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
220 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast late Thursday, allowing a
few rain showers or storms to develop Thursday afternoon. Dry
and quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Broad upper-level low pressure, associated with former tropical
cyclone #8, will continue to weaken as it exits northeast through
Thursday night. Meanwhile, guidance suggests extensive low stratus
deck affecting most areas overnight tonight, gradually lifting
by mid morning Thursday. In addition, light showers will move
west against the eastern mountains, depositing light rain
accumulations tonight. Precipitation activity becomes less
widespread on Thursday, with the possibility of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

Model evaluation: current satellite imagery and surface observations
reflect the 25th percentile of sky cover. If continue with the 25th
percentile through the overnight hours, will end up with partly
clear skies. Together with near calm flow, widespread dense fog is
progged by model consensus. However, due to minimum antecedent
rainfall, believe overcast low stratus may result instead along and
near the mountains overnight tonight. Isolated showers cannot be
ruled out tonight into Thursday morning.

Tonight`s temperatures will be cooler than last nights, generally
from the upper 50s to lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s
northeast mountains. Highs for Thursday will range from the mid 80s
across the lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Patchy, dense fog will be likely across the area Thursday night/Friday
morning as the low pressure center (remnants of Extratropical
Cyclone Eight) continues to move off to the northeast as a semi
open-wave feature. Clearing skies and a previous day`s rainfall
will allow decent fog coverage across the river valleys. The
rest of Friday looks to showcase dry and warm weather as high
pressure shoves its way into the area.

Clear skies will provide the warmest temperatures of the week.
The lowlands will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while
the mountains will see temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry relative humidity values in the upper 20s and lower 30s are
forecasted across the lowlands in the afternoon which would be
concern for fire weather, however northwest winds look to be
light enough to mitigate the threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather
continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a
ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are
forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really
looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight
chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the
higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence
is low in this occurring.

Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing
upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay
in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look
dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and
lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light
however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this
time.

Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will
gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the
Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty
still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and
diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms.
Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low
swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the
area by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s
expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going
into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on
Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently
they are forecasted to remain above concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...

Upper level disturbance will keep low chances for precipitation
through tonight. Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at most
terminals, with a slight possibility of MVFR ceilings under an
isolated light shower through tonight.

Model solutions converge in widespread dense fog or low
stratus developing with IFR/LIFR restrictions areawide
overnight through Thursday morning. However, will deviate from
consensus due to dry air, noticed in water vapor imagery, and
the lack of real wetting rain to support widespread dense fog.
Uncertain whether cloud cover will be a factor suppressing dense
fog formation. Therefore, will code IFR/LIFR conditions along
the mountains and western foothills in low stratus or mountain
obscuration. Also, coded dense fog along river valleys, keeping
MVFR visibility across western sites such as PKB, HTS and
including CRW, and IFR or worse conditions at CKB, EKN and BKW
through 13Z Thursday morning.

Restrictions will gradually lift to MVFR and to VFR by 17Z
Thursday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through midnight. Low overnight into
early morning.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions due to low stratus and/or
dense fog formation may vary from forecast overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ