993
FXUS61 KRLX 162329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
729 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under
strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic
coast brings the chance for beneficial rain tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

A surface high pressure, which has been producing dry weather
conditions for the past several days, will retreat northeast
tonight. This will allow for the remnants of tropical cyclone #8 to
move from the east against the eastern mountains through Tuesday.
Expect an increase in high to mid level clouds and light showers
mainly along the eastern mountains tonight into Tuesday. Any shower
that survives the eastern mountains will remain light across the
lowlands tonight into Tuesday. Clouds will lower into low stratus
across and near the mountains tonight and at least Tuesday
morning.

Lows will generally be in the upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the
mid 50s northeast mountains. However, temperatures may differ due to
cloud cover. Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will
provide near normal highs for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 103 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Rounds of showers are expected Wednesday, but it won`t be
  nearly enough rain to improve the drought.
* High relative humidity values expected Wednesday and Thursday
  will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

Models are projecting that the remnants of what is currently
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight" will be centered somewhere
near the western NC/SC border Wednesday morning with very little
movement throughout the day Wednesday. This will bring rounds
of showers into portions of the area Wednesday. The rain will be
beneficial, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the
drought. Relative humidity values will range from 70-80%, which
will mitigate any fire weather issues for a brief time. High
temperatures Wednesday will remain slightly below average due to
the increased cloud coverage.

Models are coming into better agreement for later this week, and
most members are showing the remnant low weakening and tracking
northeast along the Appalachian mountains Thursday. Isolated showers
remain possible Thursday, but chances will be lower as dry air
spills into the area from the north. Temperatures will be closer to
average for the middle of September. We also expect more breaks in
the clouds by the afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast
and mid-level dry air approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 104 PM Monday...

Key Point:

* Went with a warm and dry forecast for this weekend, but
  confidence is low at this time.
* Fire threat may increase again this weekend.

Models are showing low pressure centered somewhere over the
Northeast Friday, but beyond Friday, models diverge and the overall
pattern becomes more uncertain. Latest runs of the GFS and Canadian
models show low pressure pushing out to sea and another upper-level
ridge building into the Ohio Valley this weekend, while latest runs
of the ECMWF instead show the closed upper-level low lingering over
the East Coast to finish off the weekend. We suspect the ECMWF may
be an outlier and went with a warm, dry forecast for this weekend,
but confidence is low at this time.

Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the
30-40% range Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons across
parts of the lowlands. This could lead to an increased threat
of fires once again if the dry forecast holds this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM Monday...

Moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will
overspread the area during the TAF period. VFR ceilings will
gradually lower to widespread MVFR across the mountains after
06-08Z, and across the lowlands after 14Z, with areas of IFR
ceilings taking hold across the mountains after 14Z. Scattered
rain showers will also develop across the region, leading to
brief periods of MVFR visibility.

Guidance shows the potential for LLWS across the mountains
during the overnight and early morning hours, particularly 08Z
to 14-16Z, including at KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings and areal
extent may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 405 AM Monday...

Dry weather persists at least through the afternoon.

Very dry air aloft will mix down to the surface during daytime
mixing hours today. Minimum relative humidity values expected
into the 20 to 30 percent range across the lower elevations,
with slightly higher values in the higher terrain. Easterly
winds will continue to gust to between 15 and 25 mph at times
across the ridges. Approaching clouds from the east-southeast
may help to mitigate such a rise in afternoon high temperatures
today.

The next potential chance for rain is Tuesday into Thursday in
association with a low pressure system originating in the
Atlantic, and then any potential lingering tropical moisture
associated with it. Confidence in amount and placement of
precipitation is low at this time given model spread. The best
chance of beneficial rainfall will be along and east of the
higher terrain, but some beneficial rainfall farther west cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SL

FIRE WEATHER...ARJ/JMC