Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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456 FXUS61 KRLX 170545 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 145 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic coast brings the chance for beneficial rain tonight and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... A surface high pressure, which has been producing dry weather conditions for the past several days, will retreat northeast tonight. This will allow for the remnants of tropical cyclone #8 to move from the east against the eastern mountains through Tuesday. Expect an increase in high to mid level clouds and light showers mainly along the eastern mountains tonight into Tuesday. Any shower that survives the eastern mountains will remain light across the lowlands tonight into Tuesday. Clouds will lower into low stratus across and near the mountains tonight and at least Tuesday morning. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains. However, temperatures may differ due to cloud cover. Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will provide near normal highs for Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 103 PM Monday... Key Points: * Rounds of showers are expected Wednesday, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the drought. * High relative humidity values expected Wednesday and Thursday will mitigate any fire weather concerns. Models are projecting that the remnants of what is currently "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight" will be centered somewhere near the western NC/SC border Wednesday morning with very little movement throughout the day Wednesday. This will bring rounds of showers into portions of the area Wednesday. The rain will be beneficial, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the drought. Relative humidity values will range from 70-80%, which will mitigate any fire weather issues for a brief time. High temperatures Wednesday will remain slightly below average due to the increased cloud coverage. Models are coming into better agreement for later this week, and most members are showing the remnant low weakening and tracking northeast along the Appalachian mountains Thursday. Isolated showers remain possible Thursday, but chances will be lower as dry air spills into the area from the north. Temperatures will be closer to average for the middle of September. We also expect more breaks in the clouds by the afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast and mid-level dry air approaches from the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 104 PM Monday... Key Point: * Went with a warm and dry forecast for this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. * Fire threat may increase again this weekend. Models are showing low pressure centered somewhere over the Northeast Friday, but beyond Friday, models diverge and the overall pattern becomes more uncertain. Latest runs of the GFS and Canadian models show low pressure pushing out to sea and another upper-level ridge building into the Ohio Valley this weekend, while latest runs of the ECMWF instead show the closed upper-level low lingering over the East Coast to finish off the weekend. We suspect the ECMWF may be an outlier and went with a warm, dry forecast for this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 30-40% range Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons across parts of the lowlands. This could lead to an increased threat of fires once again if the dry forecast holds this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... The main theme for this TAF period is a slow progression of deteriorating conditons with possible shower activity. Mid clouds will quickly turn to low clouds overnight and into the morning. Light rain showers will be on the table throughout the period for BKW/CWR with some rain potential for the rest of the sites during the afternoon, except for HTS/CKB who should remain dry. Restrictions to VIS and CIGs may drop down to MVFR or possibly worse at times under shower activity, however the predominant flight category should remain VFR for most sites except for BKW/EKN who will drop into MVFR during the morning and continue to worsen throughout the period. There is potential for LLWS across the mountains during the early morning hours at BKW/EKN and will likely become negated by the late morning when surface flow increases. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There could be some thunderstorm activity during the afternoon, but should only be confined to CRW/BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains through Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JZ