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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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719 FXUS61 KRLX 300712 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 312 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Stormy weather today with possible severe storms. A cold front brings an end to threat Sunday evening. Dry to start the week, becoming hot again Tuesday. Next chance for rain is Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley around 8 AM this morning to encounter a very juicy and unstable environment with SB CAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, PWATs around 2 inches and deep layered shear from 25 to 40 knots. Latest Hi-res CAMS suggest additional showers and thunderstorms will develop under this environment during the predawn hours as the front arrives. Any thunderstorm that manage to develop will produce heavy downpours capable to produce minor localized water issues along their path. In addition, strong gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. SPC has outlooked most of the area under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, except for SE OH where general thunderstorms exist. The cold front will move slowly east with convective elements ahead of the front continuing into the afternoon hours when heating becomes part of the equation. The cold front finally exits southeast of the Appalachians by 9 PM Sunday with precipitation gradually tapering off from west to east behind the front. Warm temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 80s lowlands, into the lower 70s higher elevations. Behind the front, a broad surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes providing northerly flow and much fresher airmass to the area Sunday evening. Lows are expected to be in the mid to lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Sunday... To start this period off, a broad surface high will be draped across the region, therefore promoting settled weather. Upper level ridging builds in through the rest of Monday reinforcing fair weather. Due to northerly flow and passage of the cold front from the previous day cold air advection will keep temperatures down to below seasonable across the entire CWA. It will actually then give us a night of cool and quiet weather for a change. Tuesday is kind of a different story although high pressure will remain at all levels, but the surface high will eventually drive east away from the area. A warming trend will then take place with temperatures expected to be slightly above seasonable by Tuesday afternoon. However, with southerly flow and dewpoints on the rise nighttime temperatures will remain elevated for this time of year. This trend will go into Wednesday with increasing warm air advection and higher dewpoints topping daytime highs forecast to be in the low to mid 90`s across most of the area. With fleeting high pressure the next chance of rain will be Wednesday afternoon into the evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Sunday... With chances of rain starting off across the entire area on Thursday a cold frontal passage will try and make its way through by late Thursday although models have it kind of stalling a bit to where by Friday we may just see the passage take place. This will keep high chances of rain on the table going into the weekend when models have another cold frontal passage expected on Saturday. This all equated to keeping chances of rain and thunderstorms for most of the latter part of this period with mainly diurnal thunderstorms taking priority over the rest of the time frame although we cannot rule out nocturnal storm activity. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 143 AM Sunday... Radar imagery shows the bulk of convection associated with a passing short wave, exiting the eastern mountains overnight. However, the atmosphere remains very juicy and unstable, and convection may develop overnight into early Sunday morning ahead of an arriving cold front. Therefore, showers and storms are expected to continue across the area through Sunday as the front advance southeast, finally exiting the eastern mountains by 00Z Monday. Any thunderstorm tonight into Sunday can produce strong wind gusts, and brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR stratocumulus develops before dawn Sunday. This stratocu will gradually lift and break up from west to east Sunday afternoon. Light south to southwest surface flow tonight, except strong and gusty from the southwest to northwest in thunderstorms, will become light west behind the prefrontal wind shift Sunday morning, and then light northwest behind the cold front Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for lower flight category within storms or heavy rain. IFR ceilings are possible along the mountains Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L H L H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in stratus, at least in and near the mountains, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARJ