648
FXUS61 KRLX 150633
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After fog burns off this morning, today will be a bit cooler
than yesterday. However, an extended stretch of hot and dry
weather will begin Sunday and last much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

Fog has developed and is noted in almost every valley across the
northeastern quadrant of the CWA, and may spread further
southwestward as the night goes on. There was some fog earlier
over SE Ohio and the Mid-Ohio Valley area, but a bit of dry
advection behind the cold front has helped clear that out, and
as of right now it seems unlikely to return. Fog should burn off
for most areas by around 800 AM or so, but could linger a bit
longer in a few valleys.

Behind yesterday`s weak cold front, most of the CWA is forecast
to be a few degrees less hot than yesterday, but still near
normal for mid-June. It will be sunny and dry across the area,
with gentle N-NE`ly breezes. Clear and calm conditions are
expected overnight, with lows ranging from the low 50s in the
highest elevations to the low 60s in some lowland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Upper-level high pressure will be centered over the Deep South
Sunday, slowly moving northeastward throughout the day. Temperatures
will start to heat up across the lowlands with afternoon highs
expected to be in the lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
become southerly, leading to the return of more humidity. Expect
heat indices to reach the lower and middle 90s across the
lowlands Sunday afternoon. This will just be the start of an
extended stretch of hot and dry weather on the way. The cooler
spots will be the higher elevations of the West Virginia
mountains, where temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower
80s during the hottest parts of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Confidence in the potential of a heat wave over the region next week
is increasing. Models seem to be coming into better agreement
regarding the placement of the upper-level ridge axis, which seems
to be right over or slightly east of the Appalachian mountains for
much of next week. This would provide support for an extended
stretch of very hot and dry weather across most of the region, with
the exception of the higher elevations, where temperatures will be
cooler and isolated thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances next
week look minimal at this time, but if the upper-level ridge ends up
being farther to the east than what models are currently predicting,
then our region could end up cloudier and cooler with more
convection. That will be one thing to watch over the coming days
with subsequent model runs. However, if our current forecast of
largely dry weather pans out, many places will likely see worsening
drought conditions throughout the week.

From Monday through next Thursday, highs are projected to reach the
upper 90s across the lowlands with heat index values approaching 100
degrees each afternoon. It will be very important to put heat safety
into practice next week. This includes drinking plenty of fluids,
taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning or the shade whenever
possible, checking on the elderly and sensitive groups, and using
plenty of sunscreen. Stay tuned for updates as the potential heat
wave approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Saturday...

Fog has become fairly widespread across the northeastern
quadrant of the CWA, impacting EKN and CKB. Previous fog around
PKB and SE Ohio has dissipated as some gentle N`ly breezes have
ushered in slightly drier air. It appears this may be
encroaching on CKB earlier than expected, so may need some
amendments for patchy or clearing fog there in the next few
hours. Otherwise, some fog isn`t out of the question for CRW,
but given the lack of measurable rainfall in the area, that
seems to be a lower probability, so it was only included as a
vicinity mention. Once any fog burns off, expect VFR conditions
the rest of Saturday and Saturday night, with gentle N-NE`ly
afternoon and evening breezes.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog; high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing through early this
morning may differ from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 06/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK