645
FXUS61 KRLX 110140
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
940 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures
expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and
isolated storms on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 940 PM Monday...

Made a few adjustments to PoPs to better reflect the progression
of the last few showers -- which are currently tracking east
across the mountains.

As of 710 PM Monday...

Isolated showers, currently moving through the eastern half of
the area, will depart to the east this evening. Have freshened
up temperatures for the evening as current observations have
been trending cooler than anticipated. Otherwise, the forecast
generally remains on track.

As of 1150 AM Monday...

Upper shortwave and weak surface front will cross the area this
afternoon with isolated showers and possibly storms developing as it
does so. Wave will move to the south and east of the area tonight,
with at least some partial clearing, although higher terrain may
hold onto some lower clouds overnight. Areas that do clear will see
the formation of valley fog overnight, with high pressure building
in and light winds. Tuesday looks to be dry, with high pressure in
control. Can`t completely rule out a brief passing shower from
combination of heating and weak ripples aloft, but overall,
atmosphere looks to be dry and stable, thus expecting a dry, sunny
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

High pressure keeps the weather dry through Thursday. Warming
trend starts Wednesday with highs projected to be in the 70s and
80s for most. Thursday showcases even warmer temperatures in
the upper 80s and lower 90s for the lowlands; mid 70s to mid 80s
across the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work
week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will
remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be
hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The
mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s.

A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon
and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated
thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern
lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the
front.

High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday
paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and
humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected
by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the
lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes.

A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then
move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the
southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 PM Monday...

VFR is expected outside of isolated showers this evening.
These showers should depart to the east in the next couple of
hours.

During the night, winds calm and cloud cover gradually clears
which may allow areas of valley fog to develop. MVFR or worse
CIGs/VIS will be possible where fog forms. Additional MVFR/IFR
restrictions to flight conditions could occur in low stratus
along the mountains. Fog and low stratus should dissipate
between 12-14Z, allowing VFR conditions to return across the
area for the remainder of the TAF period. Light north to
northwest winds are expected during the day Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog and low
stratus tonight may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 06/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Valley fog possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JLB