841
FXUS61 KRLX 211712
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
112 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues into the weekend courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night into
Monday, bringing showers and storms to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Friday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Saturday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Showers and storms this
afternoon/evening will mainly fire up along the mountains, and
across the north as a weak boundary sags south towards the area.
Severe is not anticipated at this time, but storms will be slow to
move with brief heavy downpours. Bulk of storms should dissipate
this evening with loss of heating, but there could still be an
isolated shower or storm overnight from any passing weak wave.
Otherwise, hot again on Saturday, with additional showers and storms
particularly during peak heating hours.  Fog possible again in
favored river valleys Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

The weekend remains hot and humid as a strong H597 high pressure
center and stout upper-level ridge remains over the Southern
CONUS and most of Mid-Atlantic CONUS. Some of the hottest
temperatures of the week look to manifest Saturday with the
lowlands seeing highs in the mid to upper 90s; 80s and lower 90s
for most locations in the mountains. Dew points will be in the
60s to around 70 during peak heating which will make for some
oppressive heat indices. Heat Advisory goes until 8 PM Saturday
to cover heat indices around 100 degrees for the hottest
locations in the lowlands.

Sunday looks hot and humid as well, though temperatures will
likely be less hot by 3-6 degrees, enough to hold off on
extending the heat advisory into Sunday. This looks to be caused
by neutral flow moving in aloft as the previously mentioned
high pressure recedes, allowing some upper-level cloud cover to
move in as a result.

A quick-hitting cold front will approach from the midwest by Sunday
afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on our door by afternoon.
Clouds will gradually thicken as a result and chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase from west to east over the course of the
afternoon.

PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by Sunday night as the
cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will be possible as models project precipitable water
values between 1.50" and 2.00". Some localized to isolated water
issues could be possible with the heaviest downpours, but not overly
concerned with this as of right now due to how dry the area has
been. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall will most likely
be hoisted for our area nonetheless.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Cold front will bring a bit of a cool down on Monday, but hazard to
call this a cool down as temperatures on Monday will be in the upper
80s and low 90s for the lowlands, which is still above normal.
Chances remain for some upslope rain showers or an isolated
thunderstorms in the mountains Monday afternoon.

The heat kicks up again for Tuesday and Wednesday with a slight
ridge forming. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to
mid 90s once again for the lowlands both of these days; 70s to
upper 80s in the mountains.

Models show some shortwaves that may move through the ridge
Tuesday, but conditions look to be mostly dry until another cold
front arrives Wednesday afternoon, reintroducing chances for
some showers or thunderstorms into Wednesday night.

Finally seeing temperatures return closer to normal for
Thursday and Friday behind this cold front. Expecting highs in
the low to mid 80s across the lowlands; 70s and low 80s in the
mountains, with the highest elevations in our coverage area
(i.e. Snowshoe and Kumbrabow) sitting in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Isolated showers and storms through 02Z across the higher
terrain and possibly SE Ohio and north central WV, with brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR area wide with light surface
winds, except for patchy MVFR/IFR or worse valley fog generally
08-12Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and density of valley fog Saturday
morning may differ from forecast. More coverage of storms may
occur this afternoon than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY