137
FXUS61 KRLX 231757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
157 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

Frontal boundary snaking across parts of the area will lift
north tonight as a warm front as low pressure across the lower
MS Valley tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday.
Isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon, most
notably across the mountains where a rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out.

Some of the model solutions are quick to bring in shower/thunder
chances late tonight from the west as the aforementioned frontal
boundary lingers off to the west. Given the developing
southeast flow overnight, I tended to favor the drier solution
for the area. Expect low stratus and river valley fog to form
with dense fog possible should the sky remain mostly cloud free.
This is a low confidence forecast all things considered.

Upper trof across the upper Midwest will energize this boundary
on Tuesday. Upper level jet dynamics combined with surface lift
along and ahead of the front should give us the best chances
for widespread shower thunderstorm activity we`ve had in recent
memory. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms
should some surface heating be realized, most notably across
western zones. This would be dependent on the extent of any
morning showers. In addition, some southwest to northeast
training of activity is possible which would give some localized
rainfall amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues to bring beneficial rainfall to the
forecast area during the period in response to a stalled
frontal boundary loiters overhead. Rain will grow more bountiful
Tuesday evening into the overnight period as a nearly stacked
disturbance ventures down from the Midwest. This feature will
place the forecast area on the eastern side of the parent
trough, ushering in waves of moisture and vorticity to enhance
rainfall accumulations. An uptick in instability may also yield
strong to possibly severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but given the uncertainty of antecedent convective
trends during the day to the west, SPC has painted a broad
Marginal Risk for the area for damaging wind potential.

The cold front sails into the area overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, bringing diminishing shower chances across
the western flank of the CWA. The front is progged to get hung
up somewhere in and around Central Appalachia for midweek, which
will maintain unsettled weather through the short term and
beyond into the long term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A
tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region,
and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There
still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and
associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution
would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with
the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in
southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance
for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact
path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the
pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low,
particularly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Low end VFR cumulus/stratocumulus will tend to lift and scatter
a bit through the afternoon. A frontal boundary lingering over
the area will provide the focus for isolated to widely scattered
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder with the best chances
across the mountains.

The frontal boundary will retreat to the northwest tonight with
low stratus and river valley fog developing late. Given the
uncertainty regarding showers moving back into the area, held
most TAF sites at MVFR except EKN/BKW where IFR conditions were
inserted in the TAFs.

Some morning showers may affect the terminals, but coverage
remains in question. Otherwise, stratus gradually scatter out as
shower/thunderstorm chances ramp up midday ahead of the frontal
boundary.

Southeasterly light flow tonight, veering to the southwest
Tuesday around 10kts.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and/or dense valley fog may be
more prevalent.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30/SL
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30