Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
183 FXUS61 KRNK 101737 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern stays about the same into the weekend. Daily afternoon and evening storm chances will remain along with muggy conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Spotty showers early, then scattered storms this afternoon. 2) Isolated severe threat due to increased cloud cover. 3) Flood Watch for southside VA into the NC Piedmont til this evening. Showers/few storms ongoing over the mountains/foothills in a scattered fashion. Nothing robust due to earlier cloud cover keeping instability lesser than yesterday. Still with higher low level moisture, SBCAPEs should reach 2000-2500 J/kg, and with another vort tracking across anticipate some stronger storms mainly VA/NC piedmont later this afternoon. Localized flooding also possible. Wave moves across this evening and storms subside quicker than last night. The airmass stays the same Friday. Despite the absence of pronounced low and upper level triggers, scattered thunderstorms should develop during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Weak shear and slightly above normal precipitable water values will exist for scattered water- loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage, as well as localized flooding due to slow storm movement. Temperatures will be muggy tonight in the 60s west to near 70 east. Sunshine should be available longer tomorrow allowing highs close to 90 east to lower 80s west. Forecast confidence is moderate to high, except low to moderate on severe threat. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday... Key Points: 1. Daily chances of primarily afternoon/evening showers/storms. 2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier showers/storms. 3. Above average temperatures. A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows for Friday night a broad ridge over much of SW through SE CONUS. Over the northern half of CONUS, will be a more progressive pattern with a jet near the US/Canadian border, and a shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and one over the Northern High Plains. For Saturday/Saturday night, the two shortwave trough across north-central CONUS are depicted as merged into one, more amplified trough extending from the Upper Mississippi River Valley to the Central Plains States. Elsewhere, the persistent ridge continues across the southern half of CONUS. For Sunday/Sunday night, the shortwave trough shifts east to over an area from the western Great Lakes, south into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, for Friday night, a weak area of low pressure is expected to be across eastern parts mid-Atlantic and SE US. A stronger region of low pressure is expected to be over MT/WY. High pressure will be centered off the east coast of FL. For Saturday/Saturday night, weak low pressure remains over portions of VA/NC/SC with high pressure over the Gulf Coast states extending to east of FL. A cold front will advance into the Lower Ohio Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, weak low pressure remains situated over portions of the mid-Atlantic to SE US while a cold front advances farther towards or over the Ohio Valley. High pressure remains parked over portions of the Gulf Coast states to off the east coast of FL. A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures around +18C to +19C across the region on Saturday and +19C to +20C on Sunday. The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The area will remain within airmass conducive to daily chances of primarily diurnal showers and storms and above normal temperatures. Convective coverage may continue more into and through Sunday night, as compared to Friday and Saturday nights thanks to the advance of a cold front towards our region acting as a focus for upstream development. With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive multiple showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience slow moving heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see localized flooding. Those areas which experienced recent flooding will be more susceptible to flooding as soil moisture levels will be higher than surrounding regions. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday... Key Points: 1. Daily chances of showers/storms, especially on Mon and Thurs. 2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier showers/storms. 3. Above normal temperatures. A look a the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows for Monday/Monday night the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes merging with a longwave trough over central Canada. The broad ridge over the southern half of CONUS shifts a bit north. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, little change is expected to the over synoptic pattern. The axis of the Canadian longwave trough may shift east slightly. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the longwave trough shifts a little farther east with its trough axis dipping a little farther south into the western Great Lakes region. For Thursday, a bit more progression east and south of the longwave trough is forecast. Ridging remains over the southern half of CONUS. At the surface, for Monday/Monday night, a cold front progresses eastward, merging with what will have been a nearly stationary area weak low pressure system over eastern portions of VA/NC/SC. High pressure will remain parked over portions of the Gulf Coast states to off the east coast of FL. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, high pressure will settle over the area in the wake of one frontal passage. However, another cold front will be upstream over the mid- West. For Wednesday/Wednesday night high pressure will remain over the region with a front approaching from the northwest. On Thursday, this front draws closer, and the center of the high shifts to our southeast. A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures of +19C to +20C across the area for Monday through Wednesday. For Thursday, values decrease just slightly to +17C to +18C. The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Despite having periods of time with high pressure over the area, our region will continue within a pattern of daily chances of showers/storm. These chances will be greatest during the times when fronts are expected to cross our region (Mon and Thurs), but little change in the airmass behind each front will keep the region within a moisture rich environment. On those days without a front over the area, enough daytime heating instability is expected to occur to help generate showers/storms. With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive multiple showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience slow moving heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see localized flooding. Those areas which experience flooding on one day, will be more susceptible to flooding the next day, assuming heavy rain over the area, as soil moisture levels will be higher than surrounding regions. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Thursday... A power outage at KDAN yesterday remains so amd not sked has been added to the TAF. Mainly VFR this afternoon/evening. Showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening, with most TAF sites seeing at least VCTS, though allowed a couple hours of storms along/east of the ROA/BCB area based on radar/model trends. Another round of fog and stratus is likely tonight once the convection diminishes, with IFR or lower possible. Fog/stratus lifts in the 12-13z time frame Friday. Any storms will hold off for the most part til after the end of this taf period. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The pattern stays conducive for daily afternoon/evening storm chances, some days more than others. Outside of storms, except VFR but with potential fog/stratus late at night into the early morning. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 123 PM EDT Thursday... Power outage since Wednesday afternoon has kept observations from being transmitted from the Danville ASOS. This will impact climate products until the power is restored. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044-058-059. NC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...SH/WP EQUIPMENT...WP