Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
883 FXUS61 KRNK 101510 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1110 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern stays about the same into the weekend. Daily afternoon and evening storm chances will remain along with muggy conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Spotty showers early, then scattered storms this afternoon. 2) Isolated severe threat due to increased cloud cover. 3) Flood Watch for southside VA into the NC Piedmont til this evening. There are a few showers in the mountains and foothills this morning. Vis satellite and web cams showing cloud cover a bit more extensive, but starting to see breaks in the NC foothills and piedmont and as well as back over WV. The cloud cover may limit instability somewhat today but still with higher low level moisture, SBCAPEs should reach 2000-2500 J/kg, and with another vort tracking across anticipate some stronger storms mainly VA/NC piedmont. Localized flooding also possible. Previous discussion... Currently still seeing some light rain over the area with additional upper level forcing arriving. This will prolong showers, especially over the mountains, overnight. As far as the Piedmont, showers are weakening and the rain rates are becoming lighter. Mid level troughing over the area has stalled, but additional short wave energy will support light showers this morning and will be enough lift to support another round of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Once again damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns, but most CAMs agree today`s center of activity will be to our south. Instability will be pooled south of a line from Wilkesboro, NC, to Buckingham, VA, however a lee trough in our area will help trigger training storms and possibly more flooding issues, mainly over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont. PWATs will range from about 1.50 inches in SE WV to about 2.10 inches over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont, which is lower than Wednesday, but still enough for efficient rain rates. Cells should also be moving a little faster, so this should cut down on the total rainfall amounts in our area. Still, there will be some pockets of 1 to 2 inch totals over areas which have recently seen plenty of rain. Therefore a Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight. Tonight, we will be partly to mostly cloudy, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s in Burke`s Garden to the low 70s in Southside VA and NC Piedmont Friday morning. Confidence in the near term is moderate to high. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Scattered afternoon storms possible each day. 2) Normal temperatures through the period. A Bermuda High pressure in the Atlantic will continue to keep a southwesterly flow across the Mid-Atlantic, which will keep warm, moist air present. Dewpoints in the 70s along with diurnal heating will continue to allow daily afternoon storms to form. However, coverage will decrease to isolated to scattered, as dry air aloft along with a developing upper-level ridge will limit convection for both Friday and Saturday. A leeside surface trough will remain in place on Friday, which will aid lift across the area, which will allow any storm that does form to be capable of producing damaging winds. Due to this, the SPC has our area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. Saturday will see the surface trough move off to the east, with general isolated pulse thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. Storms will quickly dissipate after sunset each evening. By Sunday, a backdoor cold front will slide south towards our area from the Delmarva region, instigating scattered afternoon thunderstorms once again across the area, with the best chances for the northern Piedmont, closer to the front. Although storm coverage will not be widespread, flooding will remain a concern through the period, though the threat will be lower. Areas that get hit repeatedly each day will keep the ground saturated and unable to hold more water. Combined with the heavy rain received over the past week or so, and any heavy thunderstorm with high rainfall rates could easily cause flooding in flood-prone, urban, and low-lying areas. QPF totals for the period are generally low, under 0.50", but locally higher amounts in the heaviest storms will be possible. Storms are not expected to be long-lived, due to low shear values from a lack of upper-level support, which will aid in limiting the flooding potential. Temperatures remain very consistent through the period, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s, which are all around normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) A cold front moves through Monday, increasing storm chances. 2) Temperatures continue to remain around normal. Models are now hinting at the possibility of a cold front moving through the area late Monday. An upper-level trough will also provide support, which could potentially bring some severe weather. This will be monitored as details come more into focus later this week. While the front increases the storm chances Monday afternoon, with PoPs around 50-60%, drier air will fill in behind the front for Tuesday, limiting convection across the area. Moisture quickly recovers by Wednesday, with the typical daily pulse afternoon thunderstorms returning to the forecast through the end of next week. Due to the mostly stagnant pattern, temperatures continue to remain right around normal through the period, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Thursday... A power outage at KDAN yesterday remains so amd not sked has been added to the TAF. MVFR or lower conditions linger in LYH, DAN, and BLF a little longer. Additional showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening, with most TAF sites seeing at least VCTS. The concentration will be higher over LYH and DAN, with most heavy rain falling south of there. Another round of fog and stratus is likely tonight once the convection diminishes. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating hours each day through the weekend. Morning fog will also be possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044-058-059. NC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...SH/WP SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...SH/WP