Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
307 FXUS61 KRNK 140846 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 446 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley today and the Mid Atlantic region tonight, accompanied by isolated to scattered thunderstorms. High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures build into the region through the beginning of next week. The chance of precipitation will be limited for much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 415 AM EDT Friday... Key message: - Marginal risk of thunderstorms with damaging wind this afternoon and evening Isolated showers had dissipated and now satellite images showed fog forming in the river valleys west of the Blue Ridge. The fog will dissipate just after sunrise. The probability of thunderstorms will return for this afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. Convective allowing models had varying solutions for the location of any storms, but the consensus in the timing, mainly between 20Z/4PM and 04Z/midnight. Models have both the surface and 850 front crossing through the area by Saturday morning. Ahead of the front low level wind will be from the west to southwest leading to downsloping. Have gone with the warmer guidance for maximum temperatures today. Expect enough sunshine this morning before cumulus develops in the afternoon to warm most locations well into the 70s and 80s. NBM version 4.2 gave the piedmont a 50 to 70 percent probability of having a high greater than 93 degrees. Convective Available Potential Energy will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon and evening with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches. Downdraft CAPE will support strong to damaging wind in any of the more intense thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: 1. Mostly dry and warm through the period. Looking to Saturday, high pressure extending from New England southward will support northeasterly windflow across the lower Mid- Atlantic while, at the same time, an upper level ridge builds across the Southeast. While mostly dry conditions are expected on Saturday, may see a stray shower or weak thunderstorm form along the Blue Ridge with afternoon heating and upslope windflow. Upper level ridging will become more pronounced on Sunday and Monday for the Mid-Atlantic, while surface high pressure slides east, allowing windflow to shift from the south. The upper level ridging, combined with abundant sunshine each day, will allow for gradually warming temperatures. While afternoon highs will generally hold in the 80s for Sunday, much of the Piedmont is expected to warm into the 90s by Monday afternoon. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors should consider precautions against the heat, such as having cool non-alcoholic beverages available and wearing light, loose fitting clothing. Upper level ridging will also suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, limiting the activity to disorganized and isolated to widely scattered coverage. Any activity should fizzle quickly at sunset. Forecast confidence is high. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: 1. Warmer temperatures are expected next week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will maintain control of the weather pattern for much of the next week, supporting some of the warmest temperatures of the year each afternoon. Most locations will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Upper level ridging will continue to suppress most shower and thunderstorm activity, though won`t be surprised to see isolated to widely scattered activity develop with afternoon heating each day. Overnight patchy fog is also a possibility for the mountain river valleys, as well as any locations that receive rainfall the afternoon/evening prior. Forecast confidence is high. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 440 AM EDT Friday... Isolated showers had dissipated and now satellite images showed fog forming in the river valleys west of the Blue Ridge. The IFR/MVFR fog will dissipate just after sunrise. The probability of thunderstorms will return for this afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. Convective allowing models had varying solutions for the location of any storms, but the consensus in the timing, mainly between 20Z/4PM and 04Z/midnight. Convective Available Potential Energy will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon and evening with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches. Downdraft CAPE will support strong to damaging wind in any of the more intense thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are also possible with any of the stronger storms. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will build back over the region for the weekend and into early next week. Aside for some morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be limited for much of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/PM