620
FXUS61 KRNK 272321
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
721 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will slowly track south through the Mid Atlantic
and Carolina states through Friday and result in showers and
perhaps thunderstorms through Friday. Another front with
thunderstorms comes across the region Saturday and Sunday. The
humidity will remain high through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...

Shower activity this evening is just south of the VA/NC border.
These showers will continue to fade as the sun sets this
evening.

Look ahead to tomorrow, a surface high moves further east to
just off the New England coast. This will enhance return flow
from the Gulf Stream, and enable upslope from the east side of
the mountains. Have included chance PoPs for most of the CWA,
especially the southern Blue Ridge and mountains of far
southwestern VA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly above
normal, still in the 80s for most, but should hopefully avoid
the 90s as we lack a stout sub tropical ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and humid Saturday and Sunday, with heat indices near
100 possible. 2. Showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
into Sunday.

Ridging aloft builds over the southeastern US through the
weekend, while an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes and
heads eastward, bringing an associated surface frontal system
through the northeast. Surface high pressure centered over the
northeast will move offshore through Saturday, and
south/southwesterly flow around the high will advect plenty of
moisture into the area from the Gulf. Prefrontal showers and
thunderstorms are possible early Saturday with the warm front
lifting through the region. As instability increases through the
day, storms may become more widespread, though convection
earlier in the day may impact the coverage of the afternoon
storms, and storm activity should wane overnight.

The cold front itself reaches the area sometime Sunday,
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms, though
there is still a degree of uncertainty in the specific timing
details, though it looks to be Sunday afternoon and evening at
this time. Better forcing and deep layer shear Sunday suggest
more organized convection and potential for severe storms.
Ensemble forecast soundings have inverted V profiles, and
forecast DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, suggest damaging winds as the
primary threat. There is a marginal risk for flooding due to
excessive rainfall with the plentiful atmospheric moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Drier and cooler weather for Monday and Tuesday. 2.
Temperatures start increasing trend by Wednesday. 3. Hot
temperatures possible for Independence Day.

Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, high pressure builds into
the region to begin the work week, and a cooler and drier
airmass settles into the area, keeping the weather drier and
quiet for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler
relative to the weekend, but still near seasonal normals. The
surface high slides eastward across the northeast through
Wednesday, and southwesterly return flow will start temperatures
on a warming trend for midweek as ridging aloft builds over the
southeastern states. The next cold front heads into the Midwest
by midweek, and looks to reach the Mid Atlantic by late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Southwesterly flow will bring moisture and warmer air up into
the area from the Gulf, and high temperatures look to reach back
into the upper 80s and low 90s by Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...

Shower activity this evening is just south of the VA/NC border.
These showers will continue to fade as the sun sets this
evening. Some clearing is expected tonight, allowing MVFR fog to
develop, especially in the NW NC mountains and foothills.

High pressure wedges south into the Carolinas on Friday. Flow
becomes southeasterly in the afternoon as the center of the high
drifts off the Mid Atlantic coast. Flow riding up the NW NC
mountains may trigger a few showers in the afternoon/evening.
The rest of the area should remain dry.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday is expected to be drier and VFR, with a majority of the
showers and thunderstorms south of the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/VFJ
NEAR TERM...RCS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ